Basically, I think we're in a push-pull of various factors for the Trump administration
mainly the two main voices in the administration, General Carrilla, who is very pro-Israel and pushing for action against Iran
and the more diplomatically-minded Steve Wyckoff, who's had Trump's ear for the majority of the last five to six months
and is seeking maybe a more diplomatic negotiation. My personal view is that ultimately the driving force that will force Trump
not what foresaw otherwise is a relative term, but that will see Trump enter the war
is the fact, the bigger question of how do you put Israel back in the box? They've called for regime change
They cannot do it alone. They cannot sustain this war path on their own
for the next even two, three weeks with the number of interceptors required
the cost of the war daily, et cetera. They cannot do it without the US
So any ceasefire in their eyes that keeps the Islamic Republic in the state
you know, with the leadership that it has is effective defeat. So how do you square that circle? And the U.S.-Israel relationship is such
that the Americans would not have Israel defeated in the region. And bear in mind that over the last
21 months, outside of just the Rezbe and the occupied Palestinian territories in the West Bank
we've seen aggression in Lebanon, which has imposed a seafire that allows Israel to hit
Lebanon periodically. We have incursions into Syria that are entrenching. This is a regional
expansion that is broadly supported by the israeli public even if they're against the war in reza
and at the same time broadly desired by the majority of the security operators and political
elite in israel that have wanted this war so there is a a growing consensus that this is the war that they need and Iran is on an existential self narrative
So how do we... So that, I mean, crystallizes potential domestic support
for this to continue. How do you explain the two-week pause then
Because Trump's getting it from all angles, you know. He's got people like Bannon
And Wyckoff, I don't think, is going to be involved in the talks, is he, this week? So that possibly speaks to your..
I'm setting you up in opposition to John in Paris, who was equally well-informed and persuaded to the opposite conclusion
The Wyckoff absence from the talks probably supports your position. So where does the two-week pause fit into this
that things will escalate sufficiently so that Trump can join in and try his best to make it look like Iran's fault
that Iran forced his hand, that he has no choice but to do this, to stand by an ally
I think the two-week pause is initiated on the one hand to buy Trump kind
A friend in the DOD yesterday referred to it as Trump's inshallah, which is a bit of a reference Middle East joke
But ultimately, I think it's also the case of seeing over the next two weeks is Israel
How much does Israel really require the Americans in the defensive capacity
And how can it withstand or sustain current war footing? because the bigger fear with this playing out is ultimately if the U.S. enters this war offensively
the Iranians have been unequivocal that they must respond. Where are they most likely to respond
It's going to be against U.S. military assets in the region, primarily Iraq
Now, we have the largest deployment since the Gaza war began under Biden of U.S. troops to the region, mainly in Jordan
We have aircraft carriers in the region but we have set up military bases across the Gulf and Iraq The Iranians are not going to hit I don believe the Gulf countries because they are both allied
and the rapprochement has become a diplomatic priority for the Iranians. But Iraq is the haven where all kinds of coxie and de facto conflicts can play out
So the fear, obviously, is that Trump becomes another Iraq war president
which is his entire narrative since he entered politics was to end these wars and end the division of American troops in countries like Iraq
So that is a different type of war scenario that has to be considered as well as he's making his decisions
But that's why I don't fully understand, and forgive me if I've missed it, but that's why I fully don't understand why you think he's going to jump that way
I think that's what's delaying the... Ultimately, I believe that the pressure on the need to defend Israel
and protect Israel will outweigh these kinds of narratives. The delay is coming from all these, in my opinion
the delay is coming from all these different considerations that are being thrown. So he wants to do it, but he doesn't think he can do it yet
And if the situation escalates, he thinks the voices opposing him will quieten
He can sell it to his MAGA base. I don't think he can. I'm going to disagree with you on this
Obviously, I hope I'm right and you're wrong. No, no, no, I agree. I agree
But I think ultimately we are looking at a, I mean, arguably Trump is in a catch 22 where he can't get any, you know, it doesn't work either way
It's not possible. He can't square that circle positively or negatively. And that's partly where the Israelis have put him
And they put him there on purpose, believing that when push comes to shove at the end of the line
the Americans will not allow the Iranians to quote unquote defeat the Israelis Well except for I know you say Catch 22 this Eric goes for win which is I guess the polar opposite of Catch 22 If the Iranians
claim climb down and sue for peace, Trump will say he won, that it was all the art of the deal
blah blah blah. If they don't then he can pressurise Israel to stop because they have achieved their
objectives on the nuclear capability front and then he can say that he has protected American
lives and put america first either way he'll claim a win but they those actually i hadn't read it to
the end those those twin scenarios both involve a de-escalation not an escalation so if a rain if
iran doesn't climb down and if a rail israel doesn't stop then eric's win-win thing falls
to pieces and your ysis replaces it and that he'll be left with little choice that's the bit i
don't get that's like if i was a i just i just say that we have seen no scenario in the last 21
months under any administration where Israel has been forced in any way to climb down or de-escalate
In fact... No, I know, but that's not the same as America joining in. That's not the same as America joining in
Well, I mean, it's a fine line. America joining in offensively. America is involved in this
war and has been involved regionally, but that's the fine line. The question is
what can America do offensively purely from the sky that doesn't then bring about a ground war
That is what I believe ultimately... That's the thing he can't sell to the base, is attacks upon bases in Iraq
And that's... So, well, anyway, I'll read you a message that's coming. Colin's been in touch
So the quality of your callers this morning is staggering. And another one says, holy bleep, a word I can't say on the radio
holy bleep, this woman is articulate. So thank you. That's why I..
And in fact, for Stee at least, I introduced him to the word perspicacious
but now you know why I used it