After firm growth last year, seaborne trade is expected to stall in 2025, with volumes barely rising half a percentage point
Long-distance rerouting caused by geopolitical tensions kept ships busier last year, with a record of nearly 6% growth in tonne miles
We know the global environment has become more complex. We know geopolitical tensions are affecting the Red Sea and have forced costly reroutings around the Cape of Good Hope
Risks remain, for example, in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil trade
New tariffs are disrupting established trade flows. Freight rates are high and volatile increasingly
And delay and disruption are becoming the norm. And these challenges drive up costs
Political tensions, new tariffs, shifting trading patterns and reconfigured shipping lanes are reshaping the geography of maritime trade
Seaborne trade has grown in 2024 by 2.2%. At the same time, reroutings have meant longer shipping routes, with tonne miles increasing about 6%
This in turn has led to higher transport costs, delays and greenhouse gas emissions
and a reshuffling of shipping networks affecting ports, including in Africa. For 2025, the big picture is heightened uncertainty and volatility
with growth forecasts to slow to only half a percent. Global shipping is responsible for moving over 80% of the world's merchandise trade
but issues like tariffs and restrictions are becoming a new source of tension