Welcome to France 24 with me, Gavin Lee. It is six o'clock in the evening here in Paris
one o'clock in the afternoon in Caracas, midday in Washington, and we have an extended programme
tonight. Given the scale, the consequences of events in Latin America this weekend
more details are emerging of the capture of Nicolas Maduro in the early hours of yesterday
morning. The extraordinary air, land and sea operation carried out by US military and special
forces. A snatch and grab of the authoritarian leader and his wife from a safe house in the
center of Caracas. A move that has stunned US Congress and formed at the last minute and other
world leaders whose foreign intelligence agencies have barely had time to take in the actions
and the consequences of what happened in the two hours and 20 minutes of Operation Absolute Resolve
It's been like watching a film, President Trump told reporters while he watched events play out
live by drones and body cameras in Caracas and the White House version of events posted
on social media not dissimilar to any Netflix trailer. Last night on the order of the President of the United States, and in support of a request
from the Department of Justice, the United States military conducted an apprehension
mission in Caracas, Venezuela, to bring to justice two indicted persons, Nicholas and Cecilia Maduro
Nicholas Maduro had his chance until he didn't. He effed around and he found out
This was one of the most stunning, effective and powerful displays of American
military might and competence in American history. I don't understand yet how they haven't figured this out. And now if you don't know, now you know
Now the immediate focus is on, well, what happens next for Venezuela
given the legally questionable declarations from President Trump that Washington is now, quote, running the country
until a, quote, safe, judicious transition and ensuring US access to its oil as well
The Venezuelan Supreme Court has named Vice President Dulce Rodriguez as interim leader
She's given a defiant speech against the US, but ysts suggest she may have secretly agreed
to deal with the Trump administration. All the while, President Maduro, now in prison sandals and tracksuit
awaits trial to appear in a New York court on Monday. Good night. Happy New Year
Good night. Happy New Year, he says. Joining our special programme tonight, we have a Washington correspondent in D.C., Fraser Jackson, with us
And also coming up in the U.S., we have Gabrielle Helland, political sociologist specialising in Latin American politics
associate professor at the university, and author of The Democracy on the Ground
Local Politics in Latin America's Left Turn. Here with me in Paris, Ketavan Gourjastani
our International Affairs Editor and the French Socialist Senator too, Hélène Conway-Morais
Good evening to all of you tonight. Great to have you with us on the programme. We begin in Caracas, the uncertainty there right now
Our reporter Norris Agote-Sotto describing to us a short while ago what life is like the day after Maduro's rendition
I've been watching closely, monitoring the international media, and I was watching how Venezuelans abroad have taken the streets to celebrate in their countries that they are in
But in Venezuela, the picture is widely different. There's not much people on the streets and the ones that are on the streets are buying groceries, making lines to buy food or just to fill their tanks with fuel
And also there's like an uneasy calm that you can even cut with a knife
Nobody's celebrating. Nobody is either rioting or protesting. Everything is silenced. It looks like a kind of a mourning situation
But we think it's because people are still very afraid, as to the people who are in charge
who are second in command with Maduro. So I think that's the reason nobody is celebrating
or going out on the streets today, not even the police. An update in the past few minutes
First of all, an announcement from the Venezuelan military saying that the population can now go about normal activities
after the capture of Maduro yesterday. We're also hearing, This is from the Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino in the past few minutes as well, saying, quote, a large part of Maduro's security team and, quote, according to the Venezuelan ministry, innocent civilians were killed in the raid in the operation
Let's bring in Fraser Jackson in Washington. Very interesting coming from Venezuela
The information drip fed through from the defence minister today. While the US Trump administration on the front foot, it seems, Fraser
giving interviews defending what they've done, justifying the reasons for doing it
Yeah, Marco Rubio has been out on the Sunday shows today, giving a bit more kind of of the US position and a bit more detail
than Donald Trump went into after his press conference. Marco Rubio very much defending what the U.S. has done
but also kind of tempering what exactly we heard from the president
Donald Trump said that the U.S. would be running Venezuela. It very much now appears that is not the case
that the Venezuelan government is still in position there. But the U.S. is maintaining what Marco Rubio called a quarantine around Venezuela
So very much what we've seen over the course of the last couple of months, a significant U.S. army and military presence in the region blockading tankers, which Marco Rubio said was vital to the Venezuelan economy and funding the regime
So the U.S. could potentially seize more of these oil tankers, these sanctioned tankers that we've seen over the course of the last few months
but very much the US prepared to do whatever it takes, in the words of Marco Rubio
to stop anything like the Maduro government taking root again and anybody who has that kind of ideology
So Marco Rubio very much believes that the vice president, who is currently the interim president
is pretty much in line with the US and will do what the US wants
He says that he's going to monitor their deeds and actions over the course of the next few weeks and months and not take them at their statement value
Because, of course, the Venezuelan government very much in its rhetoric is not standing with the U.S. government and is very much the opposite of what Donald Trump said in his press just a couple just yesterday
So for now, the status quo kind of continues. We're still waiting to see what the full fallout of this is
but the US still maintaining that pressure on Venezuela and still reserving the right to send boots onto the ground
if it wants to as well. It's a very interesting point. I'm going to hear from Marco Rubio in just a moment
the Secretary of State. Let's just take a look at live images now. I mentioned a moment ago the urging from the military
for people to go about normal business. Take a look at this. This is in Caracas right now, people taking to the streets
ostensibly pro-Maduro supporters. It will be very surprising right now to see
given the rump of the regime in place, and Dulce Rodriguez the Vice President assuming the responsibilities of Presidents according to the Supreme Court there Those willing to decide to be defiant right now against the authoritarian government would be a much bigger risk
Let's hear then from Marco Rubio a short while ago, explaining why the US didn't tell Congress
because he said there was no issue of legality. Let's take a listen. We didn't occupy a country
This was an arrest operation. This was a law enforcement operation. He was arrested on the ground in Venezuela by FBI agents
read his rights and removed from the country. The Department of War went in, they hit anything that was a threat
to the agents that were going in to arrest them, and they hit anything that was a threat on the way out
And they hit anything that was a threat to them while they were on the ground. And that was a very limited and targeted operation
Let's bring in Ketavan as well. Ketavan, very interesting. Fraser talked about this round of interviews
Mokarubi also talking to CBS, and he's been asked about why the US
is not supporting the opposition, Edmundo Gonzalez and Maria Karina Machado. Yes, because that was something that many saw
at possibly the logical step after removing Nicolas Maduro, and that's not at all what the Americans are doing right now
And what has been indicated by both Donald Trump and Marco Rubio
is that they're, in a way, giving a chance to what is left of the Maduro regime
starting with, of course, the interim president now, Rodriguez, but also the rest of the apparatus, the rest of the government
And so the question was, one, put to Marco Rubio. You, a few months ago, called Edmundo Gonzalez
the man who stood in Machado's place to stand for those elections after she was barred
that the Americans believe won the election, and that Marco Rubio himself, at the start of the Trump II term
called the rightful president of Venezuela. And so he was asked, why did you not turn to these people
to sort of start that transition that you're talking about? He sort of danced his way out of that question
saying that they had focused on getting rid of Nicolas Maduro and they could not get rid of everybody at the same time
And then he was pushed again on why they would go for the rest of the Maduro regime, noting that Rodriguez herself is sanctioned by the Americans
The interior minister, Diosdado Escabeos, he's also not only sanctioned, he is on that indictment
that Nicolas Maduro is on as a narco trafficker himself. He has even a $25 million bounty on his
head. He's the interior minister in charge of the police that is in part repressing some of
the Venezuelan people. He's still around. The defense minister also has a bounty on his head
from the Americans. All of those people are still in place and seemingly will be the people that the
Americans are going to be negotiating with. And in this case, Marco Rubio again tried to dance his
way out of it and said, look, you saw the military operation. There was no way that we could do this
and remove five or six people at the same time. We focused on Nicolas Maduro. The reality is that
if the Americans want to avoid sending tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of troops
to control a country, they need to rely on the existing apparatus, the military, the police
the whole government system. And right now, the leader of that system, that apparatus
is Delcey Rodriguez, the interim president, and the people around her, including the interior and
the defence minister. Listening to you, Ketavan, Hélène is still with us, Hélène Conway-Mouret
Great to have you on the programme this evening with us, Hélène. I'd like to know, first of all
how are you viewing these events? What is foremost in your mind right now after what's
happened in Venezuela and the consequences. And is it a curse or a blessing for Venezuela
Well, it has taken us by surprise, as the Americans hadn't actually warned the Europeans
about this military operation. Of course, nobody believed that the deployment of the US Navy in the Caribbean was simply
to stop a couple of fishing boats carrying some bundles of drugs
So obviously there was a preparation of a major coup which has happened
So every time there's a kind of sideration as to what has actually happened
But I think it's very coherent with what Donald Trump is actually doing overall
both for the internal policies, you know, to reassure the American people that is acting for them
And indeed, fighting drug, which is a plague, is a just cause, except that violating the sovereignty of a state and kidnapping or capturing its president goes far beyond, you know, what would be expected
So I think, you know, it has sent a lot of messages, first of all, of the American military supremacy in the world, that indeed Americans can do what they want, where they want, when they want
also to us Europeans to show us that indeed we do not count very much
but indeed that was announced with Mr. Vance's speech in Munich nearly a year ago, which we didn't want to hear
That is that in the world there is China, there is Russia
and there is the United States, and everybody else is to go about
trying to find its place between these big empires. Very interesting couple of points that you made
particularly when it comes to the legality and Europe's response to it
Because some of the, let's face it, Hélène, I think fair to say both from, well, not just President Macron
but also for Sir Keir Starmer in the UK, and Friedrich Merckx, the Chancellor in Germany
very cautious, very calibrated responses so far, saying we'll just check if it's in accordance with international law
Well, let me read this to you. This is Harold Hunchin Cole today, international law expert, a prominent legal advisor, formerly of the State Department in the US, said this
It is false rationale to justify entering a country, capturing its president and seizing its assets, its oil
This is, quote, naked profiteering, evoking a claim they are trying to suppress drugs
This is internationally illegal. What do you make of that? Well, all of that is true. What this operation has done is to fracture, I think, for 2026 and after international security, because I do not see why tomorrow President Putin would feel that, you know, he should act differently
um likewise with uh with china and uh and taiwan i mean you know what will stop china tomorrow
from uh taking over taiwan saying that it is in the interest of china invoking whatever you know reason there may be uh It oil for the Americans It could be the chips for the Chinese And that it
So it means that it's the rule of the strong ones that prevail
And it's the rule of force against international law. And of course, us Europeans, it is we may be the last continent to believe in democracy and democratic values
because, you know, if you see who has actually supported the American intervention, the American action
it's the extreme right, you know, leaders around the world, and certainly the two or three that are in power now in South America
who felt that what was done by the Americans was right. So, you know, there's a very strong ideology
There is a kind of a new world order. This was announced, but I think, you know
what was announced is now taking place in front of our eyes. It has taken less than a year for Donald Trump
to put in place what he has announced. And it is ideologically driven
And of course, it is not in line with international law or democratic values the way we know them in Europe
Gabriel, listening to Hélène, Gabriel Hedlans, political sociologist, great to have you with us
as well on the programme tonight. First of all, did you see this commie
A lot of ysts talking about there was obviously a buildup for five months, but not many beforehand were saying this is about to start
How did you see it? I was very surprised by what happened yesterday and over the last 24 hours and more
I've been following very closely Trump's policy in Venezuela over the last several months
And it was clear that he was focused on Maduro. It was clear that it wasn't really a drug operation
It was a hope for, but it seemed like he wanted to use various forms of non-military pressure to try to push Maduro out
And so it was really, frankly, shocking to see this military operation take place yesterday
It's a clear violation of international law. It's a clear military engagement
It's a sort of regime change operation, although whether or not it's actually going to effectuate a full regime change is a question
But it's different than what Trump has sort of railed against. I mean, he's talked about avoiding forever wars
He's talked about avoiding regime change operations. And now he's clearly engaged in one
So it was very surprising. Gabriel, stay with us. Just looking at this live images at the moment from Caracas
the protest building there. For those just joining us here on France 24, we heard from the Venezuelan military in the last hour or so
saying that they were urging people to come to the streets, to go about normal life, was the quote
What we're seeing now is those in support of Nicolas Maduro. It would be surprising to see those against Nicolas Maduro
given that the vice president is now ostensibly in charge, according to the Supreme Court
Going back to the point, though, Fraser Jackson also with us. This is President Trump saying that he's running the country
And I'm wondering whether you've scratched below the surface here, because I guess the big conundrum for people is the difference
between what's going on publicly, Fraser, between Dulce Rodrigues, the vice president
and in the background, privately, with the Trump administration. We know she had a long conversation with Marco Rubio
the Secretary of State. What's your sense of what's going on behind the scenes? Well, ultimately, I think there's kind of a couple of things going on
We heard from Donald Trump that there was that phone call between Marco Rubio and the now interim president, Rodriguez
Of course, Donald Trump has a history of hyperbole. So, you know, I definitely assume there is some kind of contact between the two parts of the different governments
But the content of that phone call and how it went, clearly there is a difference of opinion on that
Because Donald Trump says that the phone call went really well and that Rodriguez ostensibly agreed to do whatever the U.S. wanted just in order to kind of stay in power, as it were
But, of course, Rodriguez, in her speeches since, has railed against the US government
She said it's been a kind of infraction on sovereignty, and her rhetoric has been a lot more heated than would be suggested by a civil phone call between Marco Rubio and Rodriguez
So either there has been a gross misunderstanding of the contents of that call and how well it went
or one side of this is effectively lying. So whether that is Rodriguez and trying to save face for her own public
and of course that is very much in the kind of vein of nationalism that we've seen from Venezuela
to kind of stand against the U.S. and oppressive foreign powers, maybe that is her kind of bluff that she's upholding
Or Donald Trump is also, you know, once again making things out to have gone better than they had done
So we've, you know, it's kind of difficult to read which side this falls down on
I think it's what's interesting and important to note, though, is that we should not be that surprised by this
Two months ago in November, the U.S. released its national security strategy
And in that strategy, it talked about how the U.S. was re-centering its focus now into its own backyard, into the Americas
So we should see and expect more of this kind of action, more of this kind of pressure on other Latin American and Central American nations
nations. And indeed, Marco Rubio was asked about that just today on Meet the Press. He was asked
whether Cuba was next. And he said the Cuban government is a huge problem. And when he was
then pressed again as to whether the Cuban government could be the next target of this
kind of pressure from the United States, he says they are in a lot of trouble. Yes. So just, you
know, prepare yourselves for this. This is not something that it was a blip on the radar. The US
is re-centering its focus to the Americas. It is moving its influence away from Europe
away from Asia. And this is what ultimately is the worry when I talk to, you know, diplomats here in Washington
and I talk to people about the potential, you know, invasion of Taiwan, for example
People are worried that the US is now starting to look closer to home. It's taking its eye off the ball elsewhere
So that obviously means that now the pressure is going to increase on various countries around the Americas
But that rhetoric, Gabrielle, Well, listening to Fraser's point, when it comes to the national security strategy
when you look at the Western Hemisphere, the US looking after its own backyard
as per the Monroe Doctrine back in the 1830s, going back in history to see perhaps a touch of what Trump wants to see now
it also, we've heard the threats to Gustavo Petro in Colombia, saying you better watch your backside, saying we're looking at Mexico next door
so we're looking at Cuba, as Fraser talked about. But it also allows for the fact that President Putin is going to watch this, isn't he, and think, well, Ukraine is our hemisphere, it's our backyard
The same with Taiwan for President Xi. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think that there's clear threats to any leftist or progressive or nationalist president in Latin America
The U.S. is sending a clear message that if you don't do what we want, we might come for you
I think the way that this will play in Latin America could be complicated If we think of the case of Brazil you know Trump has gone after Lula in the last year and you know threatened massive tariffs
He's supported Bolsonaro. That's actually helped Lula, the president of Brazil. It gave him a boost in popularity
So, you know, the way it plays, there could be an anti-American, anti-imperialist backlash that supports some leftist leaders, supports nationalist leaders
But absolutely, Trump and Rubio are trying to send a very clear message that if you're not friends with us, if you don't do what we say, we are going to come from you
And as you and other speakers have pointed out, this sets a very dangerous precedent for the world and for Latin America that any strong nation, any great power, any empire can do as it pleases
And weaker states, smaller countries just need to follow along. And if they don't do that, they will be pushed to follow along by those more powerful states
So this is a very frightening new world order that we're entering into
It's not totally unprecedented, of course, for the U.S. to try to have its way in Latin America
But this is an agenda of sort of pure naked dominance that Trump is pushing that we haven't seen for a very, very long time in Latin America
I want to look at that in more detail, particularly on Cuba, Gabriel
I also want to look at how it's splitting the MAGA movement as well. I just want to bring up to date with the fact there's a lot of information coming in
given the scale, given the consequences of this. In fact, a joint statement in the past few minutes from Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico
Uruguay, Spain as well, saying that they, quote, collectively reject any outside bid to control Venezuela
That statement just coming in. We're also hearing, as Fraser mentioned a short while ago
the administration behind Trump doing various interviews today. Let's take a listen to one of them, the Secretary for War, Pete Hegseth, talking to CBS a short while ago
We spent decades and decades and spent purchased in blood and got nothing economically in return
And President Trump flips the script. He says through strategic action, we can ensure that we have access to additional wealth and resources, enabling a country to unleash that without having to spend American blood
That was Pete Hegseth. We're also hearing in Venezuela, just after the aftermath of this capture
the rendition of Nicolas Maduro in the early hours yesterday, this is also about the war of optics, information
We're seeing that even from watching Nicolas Maduro in his arrest and those moments in front of camera, putting his thumbs up
giving that positive optics that he is still the leader, even though he's deposed
I want to also hear from Vladimir Padrino. He's a defence minister in Venezuela
He's been also talking to the press in the past short while
We are grateful for the prompt response of almost all the governments of the world and
the peoples of the world, because we saw popular demonstrations everywhere and legitimate governments
with a few exceptions, rejecting this gross intervention in Venezuelan sovereignty. Let the world take note, because this represents a serious threat to the global order
This represents, severely, a threat against the global order. Let's bring in Ketavan Gurdjistani and Elen as well
First of all, Ketavan, I mentioned the MAGA movement. This is not universally popular, and it's worth saying that Marjorie Taylor Greene
who's recently fallen out with President Trump, has really made a point of saying
this is not the right way to do things. No, and she put out a pretty long post on X yesterday after the news came out, saying in part that basically the justification of going after Nicolas Maduro because it was a fight against drugs simply didn't hold up to the facts
because initially we were told it was about fentanyl when Venezuela doesn't really produce fentanyl
and that if we were going after Nicolas Maduro for drugs, then we should go after other cartels in Mexico and other countries
And also adding the fact that Donald Trump had recently pardoned the former president of Honduras
who was convicted and was serving time in jail in the United States for drug trafficking
So she sort of exposed what she called the hypocrisy of the Trump administration
She also pinpointed to something that is even more important to some in the MAGA movement, which is the fact that this was exactly everything that Donald Trump campaigned against when he was running for this term in 2024
that he ran on this idea that the U.S. did not, should not be the policeman of the world
that it was America first, that they were going to focus on making Americans' lives better
and that spending billions of dollars to go and bring democracy around the world
or get involved in other countries was not the way to do it
And so she is one of the voices that is coming out against Donald Trump
and this attempt to take control of a foreign country. She is obviously a minority
As you were reminded, our viewers, she has also had a falling out with Donald Trump
But she does represent a certain fringe of the MAGA movement that is ideologically very opposed to any form of intervention abroad
whether it's in the Western Hemisphere, whether it's in the Middle East
whether it's helping Israel, whether it's helping the Ukrainians. They simply believe that it is not the Americans' business to spend money helping others
when they could be helping their own countrymen. That's basically the ideology, and that is what she's going after
And there are a few other Republicans who are pointing to that. Some Republicans are also pointing to the fact that maybe, especially those in Congress
are saying, well, maybe you should have come and asked us first, because it is, in the end
Congress's role to sort of give the authority to the president to go to war with another country
But I think what is going to be interesting domestically in the coming days and weeks
is how this is going to play out with the MAGA world more broadly. Now that we've clearly seen
that this is not just a one and done. We go in, we get Nicolas Maduro out, and then we're done
If you are going to say, we are taking over Venezuela, we are going to run the country
how is that going to play out with those Americans who wanted Donald Trump and who believed Donald Trump
when he said, we're not going to get involved in forever wars
we're not going to get involved abroad? We're also seeing this, while we're on air
it's worth saying this, Ketavan, this is coming from AP, saying that the US won't govern Venezuela
but will press charges through oil blockades. This is from Marco Rubio a short while ago
after Trump's claims of running the country. So we see him already. Things are starting to unwind a little bit
as we start to unpick the press conference. Hélène, interesting. Maybe not surprising that the rhetoric
is different to the reality, or at least it's changing. Marco Rubio now saying that the US
won't govern Venezuela. I think it was never to be the case
I think this is not about restoring democracy. I'm not, you know, I'm convinced that Donald Trump and his administration
are not concerned at all about this. They are just concerned about seizing the world's largest petrol resource
I think it's far greater even than what Saudi Arabia has. And I think, you know, in his speech, Donald Trump has used the term petrol 20 times
So I think that was his objective. I also believe that while the military operation was impeccable, if you like
from the point of view of the result, I think there must have been a great level of collusion
and preparation for it. But while, you know, we have no doubt to believe
the talents of the intelligence American services, I do believe that somehow some agreement was passed
Maybe that, you know, the military will, you know, rule the country or the vice president will remain in place. And I think what the biggest
concern for the Trump administration is for the American oil companies to take hold of the
resources and thus having the United States somehow weakening China, which I think gets 80
of its own oil from Venezuela and also Russia, because we're going to see great movements as to the price of oil
And if you remember, you know, the war in Ukraine is funded
mainly by the oil and gas exports by Russia, which today is under sanctions but still happening
So what we have there is something which is much bigger. And of course, Donald Trump, by kind of saying, look, I haven't changed the government
It was just, you know, we captured the president of that country
So therefore, we didn't have to go to Congress. We didn't declare war on Venezuela
And that's why we today have, you know, the Venezuelan people being told, sorry, that they have to go about their own business, you know, as usual
So I think, you know, that's why we see this change as well, because, you know, it's not about the United States ruling Venezuela
And indeed, if we go back to Iraq and Afghanistan and Libya, I mean, what did the Western operations, military operations achieve in those countries
if not just chaos and certainly not the restoration of democracy in none of these countries
So I think, you know, if they were to do that with Venezuela
it might end up with the civil war. And I think it would be a big mess for the Americans
A big mess for the Americans. We are still getting information coming through, Elaine
Not just from the Marco Rubio saying that we won't govern Venezuela
President Trump has given an interview with Atlantic magazine saying this. Venezuelan Vice President Delce Rodriguez, if she doesn't do what's right, quote
she will pay a bigger price than Maduro. We're going to hear in a moment
I want to bring in Mikey Kay in London. He's a renowned military yst. He's a presenter of BBC's Security Brief programme as well
the security brief. Before that, I wanted to hear again from Gabrielle. Gabrielle Hetland, author of Democracy on the Ground
Local Politics in Latin America's Left Turn. Because I want to talk about Cuba as well, Gabrielle
If you look at the oil reserves coming via Venezuela, the quote is, according to AP
around 25% to 30% of Cuba's total oil, 30% to 40% are its own, but that's a lot of oil
And it's affected already the fact that the shipments of oil taken by the Trump administration, the U.S. actions in December, has seen even more widespread blackouts
We're talking about a vulnerable, vulnerable potential country here, aren't we? A vulnerable government, given that Trump is now saying we effectively have control of the oil
How do you see this playing out? It's a very important aspect of what's happening right now
Now, Cuba and Venezuela have had an economic relationship where Venezuela has been shipping
significant amounts of oil for well over a decade to Cuba at very reduced rates
Cuba has often sold that oil on the open market for hard currency that they use for all sorts of
projects and state uses within Cuba. And in exchange, they have sent doctors
they have sent a lot of military and security advisors to Venezuela. And it's
hard to know all the specific details, of course, but it's hard to imagine that that relationship
will continue in any fashion whatsoever at this point. It's hard to imagine that the Trump
administration and Marco Rubio in particular would allow Venezuela to continue sending oil
in any fashion, but particularly at deeply discounted rates to Cuba. So that means that
Cuba could be looking at a major immediate reduction in oil, and there could be a total
severing of the sort of military and security relationship between Cuba and Venezuela. It's
important to note that this relationship has deteriorated in recent years. Venezuela has
been sending less oil than it used to before, partly related to its own economic crisis within
Venezuela. It's not clear if Cuba's military presence in Venezuela has been reduced compared
to what it was some years ago. But nonetheless, the capture of Maduro, the change in government
within Venezuela is almost sure to have a major, major and drastic impact
on the Cuba-Venezuela relationship. And we'll have to wait and see to know exactly how that plays out
But I think it's going to be very significant. It is very significant
The other point in this triage of information coming through, it's very hard to actually just take a breath and actually work out the operation itself
how utterly extraordinary it was, the speed it was, two hours, 20 minutes
We want to hear Mikey Kay's perspective on this. We all want to hear this
Mikey served in the British Enforcipes for 20 years, flew assault helicopters. Before we go to Mikey, I just want a quick word with Fraser
because you're looking at the information coming in, Marco Rubio's comments saying that we don't want to govern Venezuela
this is in the last few minutes itself. What's your take, Fraser
as to how things are starting to play out in rhetoric I mean the White House is the chief of rhetoric and this White House is very good at you know
changing headlines and keeping people talking and also diverting people across multiple different topics as well
I think it's no surprise that the actual reality of what this is going to look like is very different
to what the White House is saying, very different to what Donald Trump said in that press conference
immediately after the seizing of Maduro. And in reality, it is probably going to fall to the US
to try to influence the regime that is left behind. But of course, they are keeping up the threats
of US boots on the ground, military troops there as leverage in the Caribbean as well
But I think if we go back quickly to the Atlantic interview that Donald Trump gave this morning
to my colleague, Michael Shearer, it's interesting as well that the other place he touches on
is Greenland. Once again, Greenland is now back in the headlines. This as well, after the wife of Stephen Miller
who is Donald Trump's deputy chief of staff for policy, she tweeted a picture yesterday of Greenland covered in an American flag
She tweeted that, prompting responses from Denmark, which of course is Greenland's territory of Denmark
and the Danish ambassador posted about that and saying that it was a sovereign territory
but once again Donald Trump is not letting up on this and in this interview with the Atlantic
he was asked whether the operation in Venezuela there should be any lessons learned for the people of Greenland
and he said it was up to other people to come to those conclusions but Donald Trump said we do need Greenland, absolutely
we need it for defence. He said that it was surrounded by Chinese and Russian ships
so once again Donald Trump moving on and keeping people talking about different topics
to try to take the spotlight away from something that he might not necessarily want to talk about right now as well
So this White House continuing to keep people guessing and continuing to shift multiple topics and multiple stories
at the same time to keep everybody on their toes. Very interesting
Let's go to London because the shock and awe of this two-hour, 20-minute operation
Let's get the view from Mikey Kaye, renowned military yst, presenter of the BBC's Security Brief programme
served, as I mentioned, the British Armed Forces for 20 years before going into filmmaking and flew assault helicopters
on numerous operational tours. He joins us tonight. Great to have you on the programme with us, Mikey
You recorded a programme a month ago. You predicted this would happen. Tell us about why you could see it coming
and how it actually played out. I mean, that's a very kind intro
When you have the knowledge and expertise and experience of flying those type of night
stalker operations, which I did for numerous years over Baghdad, working with UK Special
Forces, you get a real understanding of attempted regime change in Iraq, attempted regime change
in Afghanistan. and you kind of know whilst technology is involving, and we'll come on to the technology piece in a moment
because the operation was incredibly sophisticated. I don't think we've ever seen anything quite like it
You understand that there are some basic tenets of the way that warfare plays out
And if you imagine that the mission going all the way back to six months, eight months
If the mission was to capture Maduro in his home territory, then you've got to work backwards
off that. What do I mean by that? So you've got to work all the way through to the very first thing that the US has to
do, which is they have to start getting human intelligence, human, on the behavioral activity
of Maduro. There are three types of intelligence. There's human intelligence, which is usually from an asset or an informant
There's imagery intelligence, which can do what's called pattern of life. so understand behavioral patterns
That usually comes from Reaper drones or some form of overwatch that can have long endurance and just sit up there without being detected
and suck up all that imagery intelligence. And that's through electro-optic cameras
It's through thermal cameras. And then you've got ELINT or SIGINT, signals intelligence
And the signals intelligence piece is also critical when you're building up for one of these missions
And that's basically listening into telephone conversations, triangulating whereabouts. And what the US have done is, according to open source reporting
the CIA plant was in there during the summer of last year. It's building up that picture
of behavioral patterns by Maduro. Because the last thing that you want to do is you want to launch
you don't want to launch a huge mission like that and then not have the asset or the target
in the place that you think that person's going to be. So it goes back a long way. It starts with
the intelligence. The end state is putting up helicopter or aviation assets. In this case
it was the MH-60 Black Hawks and the MH-47 Chinooks with overwatch of drone overhead
And then the bit in the middle is what's called suppression of enemy air defense. So the suppression of enemy air defense bit is American jets. And as you rightly pointed out
About a month ago, we saw a massive buildup of US capability inside the Caribbean from the USS Gerald Ford, which is the largest aircraft carrier, largest warship in the world, displaces 100,000 tons
The ability to launch over 200 sorties from that aircraft carrier. You've then got a buildup of F-35Bs, which are the fifth generation jet inside Puerto Rico
You've got Reapers and drones going into Puerto Rico. You've got MV Ospreys, which are troop carriers going into Puerto Rico
And the really interesting bit is you've got the special forces, the U.S. special forces build up off the coast of Venezuela
And that involves what's called the, let's say it's a ship that the U.S. have that is specially designed to be able to launch helicopter missions
And then you've got these helicopters, the Blackhawks and the CH-47s, which are specifically geared to have a additional special forces capability
so terrain following radar, refuelling probes, etc. So it's been a huge build-up in the making
and we can go a little bit more into the advanced stuff on suppression of the enemy air defence if you want Let do it because you take us beyond the layman understanding here military operations Your insight is valuable given your experience as well Two things interest me in particular One you talk about the technology
I believe F-35s. There was a technology that other countries just couldn't use
in that two hours, 20 minutes, in being able to direct its assault on particular military installations
communication infrastructure, and also your experience. This is your world. The heli assault itself, you know
the special force operations in coming off the aircraft and getting to Maduro
Yeah, so let's start with SEAD, Suppression of Enemy Air Defence. That basically is using military capability to be able to suppress any form of response from Venezuela
And in this case, the big threat to the jets was the S-300 missiles
ballistic counter-air defense, which Venezuela purchased from Russia. Now, the problem with those
is that they are mobile, but the problem with those is they've got a huge radar, a very powerful
radar on them. So as soon as those systems turn their radar on, that flashes up like a firework
inside the back of a F-18 jet that has got a anti-radiation missile strapped to the side
And an anti-radiation missile basically is a missile that will lock straight on to that radar signature from an S-300, and it will go in and it will take that S-300 out
Now, the Venezuelans knew this. So the Venezuelans were then starting to move the S-300s because the topography is quite interesting in Venezuela
It's quite hilly. And if it's quite hilly, it means that you can get a little bit more protection from any air threat
So that's what started happening. Now, the interesting bit about the F-35 is we know the British use the F-35, the Norwegians
have got it, the IDF have been using it in strikes against Doha and Iran
Historically, or most people think the F-35 is used for a kinetic platform
Kinetic means dropping a bomb, which it is, and it has been
But in this particular case, it's also the most sophisticated fighter in the world in
terms of the sensors that it has. So at 20 nautical miles off the coast, you've got a USF-35 acting as a sensor
And what it's doing is it's tracking the movements of those S-300s in real time
And then what it's doing is it's passing those real-time updates of GPS locations of the S-300s
to the Tomahawk land attack missiles, which are coming out of either submarines or US warships
based in the Caribbean. So basically, there's nowhere to go. And I can't think back to any operation
And I've served three tours in Iraq. I've done two tours, Afghanistan. I've done Kosovo, evacuation operations out of West Africa
I can't think of any other operation where there was this level of sophistication to be able to target air defenses that are actually trying to maneuver out the way of the threat
So it was very complex. And it was also incredibly accurate and incredibly effective
Before we go into the compound and the Heliosoft itself, I want to go back to Gabriel a second
Stay with us, Mikey. Gabriel Hetland, who's got many commitments tonight, so thank you for your time
But I do want to just get a word with you related to this, listening to the operation itself
what Mikey was saying, Gabriel, which is, you know, you've studied and you know Latin American politics
particularly Venezuelan politics, very well. When you look at the military infrastructure and you look at the fact that it's happened so quickly
There's a lot of talk now about the aftermath and about the concern for the vulnerability of those political prisoners and whether the authoritarian government would take action
What's your take on that, Gabrielle? It doesn't seem like democracy or human rights is a major consideration of the Trump administration
None of their actions so far have suggested that they are, you know, allowing the continuation of the Maduro regime without Maduro
So it's Madurismo without Maduro, which has, you know, critics of Maduro upset about that, including critics on the left, not just the right wing opposition within Venezuela
And so, you know, some of the other moves that are happening right now also suggest that we're not looking at any sort of electoral process starting anytime soon
I think all of the things that Delcy Rodriguez has done, particularly stepping up as an interim president, they have declared Maduro to be temporarily rather than permanently absent within Venezuela
And that's a move that means it doesn't trigger the constitutional requirement to call for new elections within 30 days
Instead, it allows them to rule indefinitely. So as long as that goes on, you could have the continuation of the same regime, which has a lot of critiques around human rights, around civil rights, around political freedoms as well within Venezuela
And again, there's no indication that the Trump administration has any real interest in that
It seems like Trump's own primary interest in all of this is to have the trophy of Maduro and then also have Venezuelan oil
The question of democracy, the question of a transition doesn't seem to be on his radar, doesn't seem to be important
I don't remember, you know, if the word democracy was mentioned at all in Trump's press conference yesterday, but it certainly wasn't the major theme of the press conference
And I think that's quite notable. Really good to have you on with us tonight, Gabrielle
Thank you for your time, Gabrielle Hetland, sociologist specializing in Latin American politics and author, too, of Democracy on the Ground, Local Politics in Latin America's Left Turn
Still with us, Fraser Jackson, our US correspondent in Washington, D.C. Ketavan Gogistani, our international affairs editor as well with us
plus French socialist senator Hélène Conway-Mouret and Mikey Kay as well, the presenter of the BBC Security Brief programme
Hélène, before we leave you as well, I know you've got commitments tonight
let me ask you about President Macron's statement, saying in the past, well, since overnight
saying that the 2024 presidential candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, should lead a peaceful transition
that the people got rid of a dictatorship. no question on legal issues for the US
Has he gone far enough? Well it a very strange and disappointing statement by the French president One expects better as regards the defense of international law and violation of the UN Charter which has taken place with the American operation
So does it go far enough? Well, I think it doesn't go anywhere
That's the problem. and which again goes back to what I said previously about, unfortunately, Europe displaying its weaknesses
and also being so much centered on the resolution of the war in Ukraine
which obviously is very much linked with the American commitment to continue supporting Ukraine
that I think the Europeans are totally entangled in that and out of fear, out of weakness, whatever, you know
we're not playing the role we should be playing in this. I mean, what has taken place there in Venezuela may take place in Cuba
Of course, it's going to please a lot of Republicans, you know
I mean, if indeed Cuba and Venezuela fall, I mean, these have been thorns really for a long time in American history to have these countries, you know, standing up to the American domination
So, of course, that will be pleasing to some. But I think overall, what has taken place is not good news for anybody, for international security, international law, institutions and so on
Hélène, lovely to talk to you tonight. Thank you for your time. Hélène Conway-Moré, thank you, French Socialist Senator
Let's go back to Mikey. Very interesting to listen to your insight
A question that Fraser and Ketavan, we've been talking amongst ourselves politically
about whether there was possible CIA involvement. Could this take place without somebody key to having turned on Maduro
And when it comes to that operation itself, the heli-assault we were talking about
going into that fortress-like building, which we know from war games that the Pentagon and Special Forces
had a role-played this before, Mikey, is your assessment that this could have taken place without somebody on the ground who turned
No, the level of information that you need from an informant perspective on the behavioural habits of Maduro just wouldn't have been there
So the CIA plant, I think the open reporting on that, I think it's highly likely that that did occur
I think the question is not whether there was someone on the inside that was being an informant
It's to what extent that number of people exactly exists. So it was a CIA plant, but also who else was that plant, that asset, talking to to gather that information over six to eight months
I think that's the interesting question as to what extent people were involved in this when we're talking about an inside job
When you look at the ability of the US forces now and you look at the scale of that operation, Mikey, is the technology and their ability to surpass anything? If it happened anywhere, you know, what chance the question is, what chances most country got? The might of the US, if they want to pick somebody out, is your summary that they could just do it? Wherever they are
I mean, there are so many factors that go into that. I mean, having a CVN or an aircraft carrier, CSG carrier support group, that allows power projection, allows force projection
So it just all depends on the level of capability of whomever the US might decide to go after next
I mean, there are some bits that change with technology and there are some bits that don't
Let me give you some examples. So in order to launch that special forces mission on a two hour 20 journey, there are four four major risks as an aviation commander, which I used to be on a pilot in doing a type of operation like that
The obvious one that people think about is what is the threat on the ground
Now, I spoke earlier on about the suppression of any air defense, Tomahawk land attack missiles, taking out S 300
The S-300 isn't a threat to a low-level flying helicopter. It's what's called MANPADS, Man Portable Air Defense, a really mobile tube that fits on
the shoulder of a soldier and can be launched using an infrared or heat-seeking head, which
then targets the engines or the heat source of whatever the target is
So it would be engines in the case of helicopters. Now, the Venezuelans bought SA-24 IGLA, that's the NATO code name, for these missiles
And thankfully, when I was operating in Baghdad, there was no known evidence or intelligence that al-Qaeda had these kind of manpads, which provides you with great relief
These SA-24 IGLA's also will have a countermeasures capability. So what that means is, is that when we used to fly, the American soft forces, special operations forces will have the same self-defense equipment on the helicopters
But the primary one that helps invade a MANPAD launch missile is flares
And basically, flares will come out of the helicopter pointing forward. And hopefully, the idea of the flare is to go into the scope of the IR seeker head
And the IR seeker head then decides to take the flare and not stay on the engine, i.e. decoying the missile away
So that's an important one. And there are, and I have seen unverified footage of manpads being launched at these helicopters
So that's threat number one. If you want to jump in, please do. No, only because we don't want to crash the programme
But you know what? It is fascinating to get an insight. It's not every day we can go into your world, to that world, to understand the operation
Mikey, we will speak again, no doubt, in the coming days. Really appreciate your time
Renowned military yst Mikey Kay, presenter of the BBC Security Brief programme
We'll speak soon. Thank you for your time. Thank you also. Fraser Jackson, our US correspondent in DC
Ketavan Gurdjieff, thank you too. Our International Affairs editor will be back with you both very shortly
Stay with us here on France 24. We'll be back in just a moment