WEBVTT 00:00.000 --> 00:14.340 Welcome to France 24 with me, Gavin Lee. It is six o'clock in the evening here in Paris 00:14.480 --> 00:19.380 one o'clock in the afternoon in Caracas, midday in Washington, and we have an extended programme 00:19.380 --> 00:23.140 tonight. Given the scale, the consequences of events in Latin America this weekend 00:23.640 --> 00:28.680 more details are emerging of the capture of Nicolas Maduro in the early hours of yesterday 00:28.680 --> 00:33.240 morning. The extraordinary air, land and sea operation carried out by US military and special 00:33.240 --> 00:37.980 forces. A snatch and grab of the authoritarian leader and his wife from a safe house in the 00:37.980 --> 00:43.240 center of Caracas. A move that has stunned US Congress and formed at the last minute and other 00:43.240 --> 00:47.860 world leaders whose foreign intelligence agencies have barely had time to take in the actions 00:47.860 --> 00:53.700 and the consequences of what happened in the two hours and 20 minutes of Operation Absolute Resolve 00:54.060 --> 00:57.980 It's been like watching a film, President Trump told reporters while he watched events play out 00:57.980 --> 01:02.820 live by drones and body cameras in Caracas and the White House version of events posted 01:02.820 --> 01:17.040 on social media not dissimilar to any Netflix trailer. Last night on the order of the President of the United States, and in support of a request 01:17.040 --> 01:22.960 from the Department of Justice, the United States military conducted an apprehension 01:22.960 --> 01:29.560 mission in Caracas, Venezuela, to bring to justice two indicted persons, Nicholas and Cecilia Maduro 01:30.740 --> 01:36.520 Nicholas Maduro had his chance until he didn't. He effed around and he found out 01:37.020 --> 01:42.220 This was one of the most stunning, effective and powerful displays of American 01:42.220 --> 01:51.300 military might and competence in American history. I don't understand yet how they haven't figured this out. And now if you don't know, now you know 01:51.300 --> 01:56.000 Now the immediate focus is on, well, what happens next for Venezuela 01:56.180 --> 02:02.280 given the legally questionable declarations from President Trump that Washington is now, quote, running the country 02:02.280 --> 02:07.380 until a, quote, safe, judicious transition and ensuring US access to its oil as well 02:07.840 --> 02:11.980 The Venezuelan Supreme Court has named Vice President Dulce Rodriguez as interim leader 02:12.100 --> 02:16.760 She's given a defiant speech against the US, but ysts suggest she may have secretly agreed 02:16.760 --> 02:22.680 to deal with the Trump administration. All the while, President Maduro, now in prison sandals and tracksuit 02:23.320 --> 02:30.120 awaits trial to appear in a New York court on Monday. Good night. Happy New Year 02:31.940 --> 02:39.200 Good night. Happy New Year, he says. Joining our special programme tonight, we have a Washington correspondent in D.C., Fraser Jackson, with us 02:39.820 --> 02:45.640 And also coming up in the U.S., we have Gabrielle Helland, political sociologist specialising in Latin American politics 02:45.760 --> 02:50.100 associate professor at the university, and author of The Democracy on the Ground 02:50.220 --> 02:54.720 Local Politics in Latin America's Left Turn. Here with me in Paris, Ketavan Gourjastani 02:54.880 --> 02:59.840 our International Affairs Editor and the French Socialist Senator too, Hélène Conway-Morais 02:59.940 --> 03:07.680 Good evening to all of you tonight. Great to have you with us on the programme. We begin in Caracas, the uncertainty there right now 03:07.680 --> 03:15.220 Our reporter Norris Agote-Sotto describing to us a short while ago what life is like the day after Maduro's rendition 03:15.220 --> 03:28.380 I've been watching closely, monitoring the international media, and I was watching how Venezuelans abroad have taken the streets to celebrate in their countries that they are in 03:28.640 --> 03:43.080 But in Venezuela, the picture is widely different. There's not much people on the streets and the ones that are on the streets are buying groceries, making lines to buy food or just to fill their tanks with fuel 03:43.080 --> 03:51.660 And also there's like an uneasy calm that you can even cut with a knife 03:52.360 --> 04:03.380 Nobody's celebrating. Nobody is either rioting or protesting. Everything is silenced. It looks like a kind of a mourning situation 04:03.380 --> 04:11.420 But we think it's because people are still very afraid, as to the people who are in charge 04:11.760 --> 04:17.420 who are second in command with Maduro. So I think that's the reason nobody is celebrating 04:17.420 --> 04:23.140 or going out on the streets today, not even the police. An update in the past few minutes 04:23.240 --> 04:28.540 First of all, an announcement from the Venezuelan military saying that the population can now go about normal activities 04:28.540 --> 04:45.880 after the capture of Maduro yesterday. We're also hearing, This is from the Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino in the past few minutes as well, saying, quote, a large part of Maduro's security team and, quote, according to the Venezuelan ministry, innocent civilians were killed in the raid in the operation 04:45.880 --> 04:50.260 Let's bring in Fraser Jackson in Washington. Very interesting coming from Venezuela 04:50.420 --> 04:57.780 The information drip fed through from the defence minister today. While the US Trump administration on the front foot, it seems, Fraser 04:57.860 --> 05:01.740 giving interviews defending what they've done, justifying the reasons for doing it 05:04.480 --> 05:11.780 Yeah, Marco Rubio has been out on the Sunday shows today, giving a bit more kind of of the US position and a bit more detail 05:11.780 --> 05:19.100 than Donald Trump went into after his press conference. Marco Rubio very much defending what the U.S. has done 05:19.480 --> 05:23.640 but also kind of tempering what exactly we heard from the president 05:23.800 --> 05:29.680 Donald Trump said that the U.S. would be running Venezuela. It very much now appears that is not the case 05:30.240 --> 05:39.840 that the Venezuelan government is still in position there. But the U.S. is maintaining what Marco Rubio called a quarantine around Venezuela 05:39.840 --> 05:53.700 So very much what we've seen over the course of the last couple of months, a significant U.S. army and military presence in the region blockading tankers, which Marco Rubio said was vital to the Venezuelan economy and funding the regime 05:53.880 --> 06:01.320 So the U.S. could potentially seize more of these oil tankers, these sanctioned tankers that we've seen over the course of the last few months 06:01.320 --> 06:07.720 but very much the US prepared to do whatever it takes, in the words of Marco Rubio 06:08.080 --> 06:14.360 to stop anything like the Maduro government taking root again and anybody who has that kind of ideology 06:14.700 --> 06:21.900 So Marco Rubio very much believes that the vice president, who is currently the interim president 06:22.440 --> 06:26.520 is pretty much in line with the US and will do what the US wants 06:26.520 --> 06:34.420 He says that he's going to monitor their deeds and actions over the course of the next few weeks and months and not take them at their statement value 06:34.520 --> 06:45.960 Because, of course, the Venezuelan government very much in its rhetoric is not standing with the U.S. government and is very much the opposite of what Donald Trump said in his press just a couple just yesterday 06:45.960 --> 06:52.200 So for now, the status quo kind of continues. We're still waiting to see what the full fallout of this is 06:52.200 --> 06:58.540 but the US still maintaining that pressure on Venezuela and still reserving the right to send boots onto the ground 06:58.540 --> 07:02.140 if it wants to as well. It's a very interesting point. I'm going to hear from Marco Rubio in just a moment 07:02.240 --> 07:07.600 the Secretary of State. Let's just take a look at live images now. I mentioned a moment ago the urging from the military 07:07.600 --> 07:12.520 for people to go about normal business. Take a look at this. This is in Caracas right now, people taking to the streets 07:13.120 --> 07:18.580 ostensibly pro-Maduro supporters. It will be very surprising right now to see 07:18.720 --> 07:35.824 given the rump of the regime in place, and Dulce Rodriguez the Vice President assuming the responsibilities of Presidents according to the Supreme Court there Those willing to decide to be defiant right now against the authoritarian government would be a much bigger risk 07:36.044 --> 07:42.104 Let's hear then from Marco Rubio a short while ago, explaining why the US didn't tell Congress 07:42.604 --> 07:48.684 because he said there was no issue of legality. Let's take a listen. We didn't occupy a country 07:48.824 --> 07:54.924 This was an arrest operation. This was a law enforcement operation. He was arrested on the ground in Venezuela by FBI agents 07:55.004 --> 08:01.084 read his rights and removed from the country. The Department of War went in, they hit anything that was a threat 08:01.084 --> 08:05.424 to the agents that were going in to arrest them, and they hit anything that was a threat on the way out 08:05.664 --> 08:11.144 And they hit anything that was a threat to them while they were on the ground. And that was a very limited and targeted operation 08:11.684 --> 08:16.084 Let's bring in Ketavan as well. Ketavan, very interesting. Fraser talked about this round of interviews 08:16.464 --> 08:20.764 Mokarubi also talking to CBS, and he's been asked about why the US 08:20.764 --> 08:28.664 is not supporting the opposition, Edmundo Gonzalez and Maria Karina Machado. Yes, because that was something that many saw 08:28.664 --> 08:36.284 at possibly the logical step after removing Nicolas Maduro, and that's not at all what the Americans are doing right now 08:36.444 --> 08:40.724 And what has been indicated by both Donald Trump and Marco Rubio 08:40.724 --> 08:47.604 is that they're, in a way, giving a chance to what is left of the Maduro regime 08:47.804 --> 08:55.744 starting with, of course, the interim president now, Rodriguez, but also the rest of the apparatus, the rest of the government 08:55.984 --> 09:04.304 And so the question was, one, put to Marco Rubio. You, a few months ago, called Edmundo Gonzalez 09:04.544 --> 09:09.584 the man who stood in Machado's place to stand for those elections after she was barred 09:09.864 --> 09:17.804 that the Americans believe won the election, and that Marco Rubio himself, at the start of the Trump II term 09:17.804 --> 09:25.024 called the rightful president of Venezuela. And so he was asked, why did you not turn to these people 09:25.024 --> 09:33.584 to sort of start that transition that you're talking about? He sort of danced his way out of that question 09:33.584 --> 09:40.644 saying that they had focused on getting rid of Nicolas Maduro and they could not get rid of everybody at the same time 09:40.724 --> 09:52.924 And then he was pushed again on why they would go for the rest of the Maduro regime, noting that Rodriguez herself is sanctioned by the Americans 09:53.344 --> 10:00.964 The interior minister, Diosdado Escabeos, he's also not only sanctioned, he is on that indictment 10:00.964 --> 10:09.844 that Nicolas Maduro is on as a narco trafficker himself. He has even a $25 million bounty on his 10:09.844 --> 10:15.904 head. He's the interior minister in charge of the police that is in part repressing some of 10:15.904 --> 10:22.264 the Venezuelan people. He's still around. The defense minister also has a bounty on his head 10:22.264 --> 10:28.724 from the Americans. All of those people are still in place and seemingly will be the people that the 10:28.724 --> 10:35.504 Americans are going to be negotiating with. And in this case, Marco Rubio again tried to dance his 10:35.504 --> 10:41.824 way out of it and said, look, you saw the military operation. There was no way that we could do this 10:41.824 --> 10:48.704 and remove five or six people at the same time. We focused on Nicolas Maduro. The reality is that 10:48.704 --> 10:55.004 if the Americans want to avoid sending tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of troops 10:55.004 --> 11:01.604 to control a country, they need to rely on the existing apparatus, the military, the police 11:01.604 --> 11:07.784 the whole government system. And right now, the leader of that system, that apparatus 11:08.304 --> 11:14.944 is Delcey Rodriguez, the interim president, and the people around her, including the interior and 11:14.944 --> 11:21.124 the defence minister. Listening to you, Ketavan, Hélène is still with us, Hélène Conway-Mouret 11:21.284 --> 11:24.984 Great to have you on the programme this evening with us, Hélène. I'd like to know, first of all 11:25.064 --> 11:30.244 how are you viewing these events? What is foremost in your mind right now after what's 11:30.244 --> 11:34.624 happened in Venezuela and the consequences. And is it a curse or a blessing for Venezuela 11:36.784 --> 11:45.004 Well, it has taken us by surprise, as the Americans hadn't actually warned the Europeans 11:45.004 --> 11:54.744 about this military operation. Of course, nobody believed that the deployment of the US Navy in the Caribbean was simply 11:54.744 --> 11:59.864 to stop a couple of fishing boats carrying some bundles of drugs 11:59.864 --> 12:04.964 So obviously there was a preparation of a major coup which has happened 12:05.464 --> 12:11.764 So every time there's a kind of sideration as to what has actually happened 12:12.384 --> 12:18.864 But I think it's very coherent with what Donald Trump is actually doing overall 12:19.864 --> 12:27.024 both for the internal policies, you know, to reassure the American people that is acting for them 12:27.024 --> 12:44.644 And indeed, fighting drug, which is a plague, is a just cause, except that violating the sovereignty of a state and kidnapping or capturing its president goes far beyond, you know, what would be expected 12:44.644 --> 12:59.264 So I think, you know, it has sent a lot of messages, first of all, of the American military supremacy in the world, that indeed Americans can do what they want, where they want, when they want 12:59.264 --> 13:07.564 also to us Europeans to show us that indeed we do not count very much 13:07.704 --> 13:17.804 but indeed that was announced with Mr. Vance's speech in Munich nearly a year ago, which we didn't want to hear 13:18.464 --> 13:22.284 That is that in the world there is China, there is Russia 13:22.284 --> 13:27.484 and there is the United States, and everybody else is to go about 13:27.484 --> 13:36.464 trying to find its place between these big empires. Very interesting couple of points that you made 13:36.604 --> 13:40.384 particularly when it comes to the legality and Europe's response to it 13:40.504 --> 13:46.424 Because some of the, let's face it, Hélène, I think fair to say both from, well, not just President Macron 13:46.564 --> 13:51.064 but also for Sir Keir Starmer in the UK, and Friedrich Merckx, the Chancellor in Germany 13:51.244 --> 13:57.164 very cautious, very calibrated responses so far, saying we'll just check if it's in accordance with international law 13:57.164 --> 14:05.844 Well, let me read this to you. This is Harold Hunchin Cole today, international law expert, a prominent legal advisor, formerly of the State Department in the US, said this 14:06.604 --> 14:13.544 It is false rationale to justify entering a country, capturing its president and seizing its assets, its oil 14:13.544 --> 14:19.184 This is, quote, naked profiteering, evoking a claim they are trying to suppress drugs 14:19.844 --> 14:44.324 This is internationally illegal. What do you make of that? Well, all of that is true. What this operation has done is to fracture, I think, for 2026 and after international security, because I do not see why tomorrow President Putin would feel that, you know, he should act differently 14:44.324 --> 14:52.164 um likewise with uh with china and uh and taiwan i mean you know what will stop china tomorrow 14:52.164 --> 15:05.969 from uh taking over taiwan saying that it is in the interest of china invoking whatever you know reason there may be uh It oil for the Americans It could be the chips for the Chinese And that it 15:05.969 --> 15:10.649 So it means that it's the rule of the strong ones that prevail 15:10.829 --> 15:22.989 And it's the rule of force against international law. And of course, us Europeans, it is we may be the last continent to believe in democracy and democratic values 15:22.989 --> 15:31.409 because, you know, if you see who has actually supported the American intervention, the American action 15:31.889 --> 15:41.569 it's the extreme right, you know, leaders around the world, and certainly the two or three that are in power now in South America 15:41.829 --> 15:48.689 who felt that what was done by the Americans was right. So, you know, there's a very strong ideology 15:48.989 --> 15:52.929 There is a kind of a new world order. This was announced, but I think, you know 15:53.029 --> 15:58.769 what was announced is now taking place in front of our eyes. It has taken less than a year for Donald Trump 15:58.769 --> 16:03.409 to put in place what he has announced. And it is ideologically driven 16:03.989 --> 16:10.209 And of course, it is not in line with international law or democratic values the way we know them in Europe 16:11.069 --> 16:16.469 Gabriel, listening to Hélène, Gabriel Hedlans, political sociologist, great to have you with us 16:16.469 --> 16:20.069 as well on the programme tonight. First of all, did you see this commie 16:20.069 --> 16:27.749 A lot of ysts talking about there was obviously a buildup for five months, but not many beforehand were saying this is about to start 16:28.389 --> 16:37.929 How did you see it? I was very surprised by what happened yesterday and over the last 24 hours and more 16:38.329 --> 16:43.949 I've been following very closely Trump's policy in Venezuela over the last several months 16:44.229 --> 16:49.569 And it was clear that he was focused on Maduro. It was clear that it wasn't really a drug operation 16:49.569 --> 16:57.649 It was a hope for, but it seemed like he wanted to use various forms of non-military pressure to try to push Maduro out 16:58.329 --> 17:03.629 And so it was really, frankly, shocking to see this military operation take place yesterday 17:04.309 --> 17:08.849 It's a clear violation of international law. It's a clear military engagement 17:09.029 --> 17:16.289 It's a sort of regime change operation, although whether or not it's actually going to effectuate a full regime change is a question 17:17.009 --> 17:23.049 But it's different than what Trump has sort of railed against. I mean, he's talked about avoiding forever wars 17:23.109 --> 17:28.029 He's talked about avoiding regime change operations. And now he's clearly engaged in one 17:28.149 --> 17:35.529 So it was very surprising. Gabriel, stay with us. Just looking at this live images at the moment from Caracas 17:35.609 --> 17:43.529 the protest building there. For those just joining us here on France 24, we heard from the Venezuelan military in the last hour or so 17:43.529 --> 17:48.609 saying that they were urging people to come to the streets, to go about normal life, was the quote 17:49.069 --> 17:56.349 What we're seeing now is those in support of Nicolas Maduro. It would be surprising to see those against Nicolas Maduro 17:56.569 --> 18:00.809 given that the vice president is now ostensibly in charge, according to the Supreme Court 18:00.949 --> 18:07.349 Going back to the point, though, Fraser Jackson also with us. This is President Trump saying that he's running the country 18:07.349 --> 18:13.189 And I'm wondering whether you've scratched below the surface here, because I guess the big conundrum for people is the difference 18:13.189 --> 18:17.829 between what's going on publicly, Fraser, between Dulce Rodrigues, the vice president 18:18.369 --> 18:24.049 and in the background, privately, with the Trump administration. We know she had a long conversation with Marco Rubio 18:24.129 --> 18:34.609 the Secretary of State. What's your sense of what's going on behind the scenes? Well, ultimately, I think there's kind of a couple of things going on 18:34.769 --> 18:41.849 We heard from Donald Trump that there was that phone call between Marco Rubio and the now interim president, Rodriguez 18:41.849 --> 18:52.769 Of course, Donald Trump has a history of hyperbole. So, you know, I definitely assume there is some kind of contact between the two parts of the different governments 18:53.149 --> 18:59.169 But the content of that phone call and how it went, clearly there is a difference of opinion on that 18:59.249 --> 19:10.649 Because Donald Trump says that the phone call went really well and that Rodriguez ostensibly agreed to do whatever the U.S. wanted just in order to kind of stay in power, as it were 19:10.649 --> 19:15.469 But, of course, Rodriguez, in her speeches since, has railed against the US government 19:15.649 --> 19:26.729 She said it's been a kind of infraction on sovereignty, and her rhetoric has been a lot more heated than would be suggested by a civil phone call between Marco Rubio and Rodriguez 19:27.249 --> 19:33.129 So either there has been a gross misunderstanding of the contents of that call and how well it went 19:33.449 --> 19:41.589 or one side of this is effectively lying. So whether that is Rodriguez and trying to save face for her own public 19:41.589 --> 19:45.849 and of course that is very much in the kind of vein of nationalism that we've seen from Venezuela 19:45.849 --> 19:53.889 to kind of stand against the U.S. and oppressive foreign powers, maybe that is her kind of bluff that she's upholding 19:54.249 --> 20:01.449 Or Donald Trump is also, you know, once again making things out to have gone better than they had done 20:01.589 --> 20:05.489 So we've, you know, it's kind of difficult to read which side this falls down on 20:05.489 --> 20:11.289 I think it's what's interesting and important to note, though, is that we should not be that surprised by this 20:11.529 --> 20:15.989 Two months ago in November, the U.S. released its national security strategy 20:16.529 --> 20:24.109 And in that strategy, it talked about how the U.S. was re-centering its focus now into its own backyard, into the Americas 20:24.429 --> 20:32.489 So we should see and expect more of this kind of action, more of this kind of pressure on other Latin American and Central American nations 20:32.489 --> 20:38.269 nations. And indeed, Marco Rubio was asked about that just today on Meet the Press. He was asked 20:38.269 --> 20:43.649 whether Cuba was next. And he said the Cuban government is a huge problem. And when he was 20:43.649 --> 20:48.489 then pressed again as to whether the Cuban government could be the next target of this 20:48.489 --> 20:54.929 kind of pressure from the United States, he says they are in a lot of trouble. Yes. So just, you 20:54.929 --> 20:59.949 know, prepare yourselves for this. This is not something that it was a blip on the radar. The US 20:59.949 --> 21:05.529 is re-centering its focus to the Americas. It is moving its influence away from Europe 21:05.689 --> 21:12.529 away from Asia. And this is what ultimately is the worry when I talk to, you know, diplomats here in Washington 21:12.529 --> 21:17.729 and I talk to people about the potential, you know, invasion of Taiwan, for example 21:18.129 --> 21:22.609 People are worried that the US is now starting to look closer to home. It's taking its eye off the ball elsewhere 21:23.049 --> 21:27.529 So that obviously means that now the pressure is going to increase on various countries around the Americas 21:28.109 --> 21:32.929 But that rhetoric, Gabrielle, Well, listening to Fraser's point, when it comes to the national security strategy 21:32.929 --> 21:37.089 when you look at the Western Hemisphere, the US looking after its own backyard 21:37.209 --> 21:45.989 as per the Monroe Doctrine back in the 1830s, going back in history to see perhaps a touch of what Trump wants to see now 21:47.049 --> 21:55.149 it also, we've heard the threats to Gustavo Petro in Colombia, saying you better watch your backside, saying we're looking at Mexico next door 21:55.149 --> 22:05.209 so we're looking at Cuba, as Fraser talked about. But it also allows for the fact that President Putin is going to watch this, isn't he, and think, well, Ukraine is our hemisphere, it's our backyard 22:05.429 --> 22:19.049 The same with Taiwan for President Xi. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think that there's clear threats to any leftist or progressive or nationalist president in Latin America 22:19.249 --> 22:24.829 The U.S. is sending a clear message that if you don't do what we want, we might come for you 22:24.829 --> 22:36.454 I think the way that this will play in Latin America could be complicated If we think of the case of Brazil you know Trump has gone after Lula in the last year and you know threatened massive tariffs 22:36.454 --> 22:42.154 He's supported Bolsonaro. That's actually helped Lula, the president of Brazil. It gave him a boost in popularity 22:43.094 --> 22:52.034 So, you know, the way it plays, there could be an anti-American, anti-imperialist backlash that supports some leftist leaders, supports nationalist leaders 22:52.034 --> 23:00.794 But absolutely, Trump and Rubio are trying to send a very clear message that if you're not friends with us, if you don't do what we say, we are going to come from you 23:00.794 --> 23:12.974 And as you and other speakers have pointed out, this sets a very dangerous precedent for the world and for Latin America that any strong nation, any great power, any empire can do as it pleases 23:13.734 --> 23:24.734 And weaker states, smaller countries just need to follow along. And if they don't do that, they will be pushed to follow along by those more powerful states 23:24.814 --> 23:29.294 So this is a very frightening new world order that we're entering into 23:29.434 --> 23:35.034 It's not totally unprecedented, of course, for the U.S. to try to have its way in Latin America 23:35.034 --> 23:43.654 But this is an agenda of sort of pure naked dominance that Trump is pushing that we haven't seen for a very, very long time in Latin America 23:44.154 --> 23:48.014 I want to look at that in more detail, particularly on Cuba, Gabriel 23:48.114 --> 23:53.574 I also want to look at how it's splitting the MAGA movement as well. I just want to bring up to date with the fact there's a lot of information coming in 23:53.654 --> 23:59.094 given the scale, given the consequences of this. In fact, a joint statement in the past few minutes from Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico 23:59.274 --> 24:05.274 Uruguay, Spain as well, saying that they, quote, collectively reject any outside bid to control Venezuela 24:05.374 --> 24:09.634 That statement just coming in. We're also hearing, as Fraser mentioned a short while ago 24:09.934 --> 24:17.554 the administration behind Trump doing various interviews today. Let's take a listen to one of them, the Secretary for War, Pete Hegseth, talking to CBS a short while ago 24:19.574 --> 24:26.114 We spent decades and decades and spent purchased in blood and got nothing economically in return 24:26.254 --> 24:39.034 And President Trump flips the script. He says through strategic action, we can ensure that we have access to additional wealth and resources, enabling a country to unleash that without having to spend American blood 24:39.974 --> 24:46.174 That was Pete Hegseth. We're also hearing in Venezuela, just after the aftermath of this capture 24:46.314 --> 24:52.234 the rendition of Nicolas Maduro in the early hours yesterday, this is also about the war of optics, information 24:52.414 --> 24:58.434 We're seeing that even from watching Nicolas Maduro in his arrest and those moments in front of camera, putting his thumbs up 24:58.534 --> 25:03.234 giving that positive optics that he is still the leader, even though he's deposed 25:03.374 --> 25:06.914 I want to also hear from Vladimir Padrino. He's a defence minister in Venezuela 25:06.914 --> 25:10.914 He's been also talking to the press in the past short while 25:11.174 --> 25:19.774 We are grateful for the prompt response of almost all the governments of the world and 25:19.774 --> 25:26.434 the peoples of the world, because we saw popular demonstrations everywhere and legitimate governments 25:26.434 --> 25:37.494 with a few exceptions, rejecting this gross intervention in Venezuelan sovereignty. Let the world take note, because this represents a serious threat to the global order 25:37.494 --> 25:47.894 This represents, severely, a threat against the global order. Let's bring in Ketavan Gurdjistani and Elen as well 25:48.054 --> 25:54.794 First of all, Ketavan, I mentioned the MAGA movement. This is not universally popular, and it's worth saying that Marjorie Taylor Greene 25:54.854 --> 25:59.414 who's recently fallen out with President Trump, has really made a point of saying 25:59.414 --> 26:19.914 this is not the right way to do things. No, and she put out a pretty long post on X yesterday after the news came out, saying in part that basically the justification of going after Nicolas Maduro because it was a fight against drugs simply didn't hold up to the facts 26:19.914 --> 26:25.594 because initially we were told it was about fentanyl when Venezuela doesn't really produce fentanyl 26:25.594 --> 26:34.014 and that if we were going after Nicolas Maduro for drugs, then we should go after other cartels in Mexico and other countries 26:34.194 --> 26:41.774 And also adding the fact that Donald Trump had recently pardoned the former president of Honduras 26:41.874 --> 26:46.794 who was convicted and was serving time in jail in the United States for drug trafficking 26:46.794 --> 26:51.594 So she sort of exposed what she called the hypocrisy of the Trump administration 26:52.234 --> 27:07.974 She also pinpointed to something that is even more important to some in the MAGA movement, which is the fact that this was exactly everything that Donald Trump campaigned against when he was running for this term in 2024 27:07.974 --> 27:15.654 that he ran on this idea that the U.S. did not, should not be the policeman of the world 27:15.754 --> 27:21.014 that it was America first, that they were going to focus on making Americans' lives better 27:21.174 --> 27:26.354 and that spending billions of dollars to go and bring democracy around the world 27:26.354 --> 27:30.474 or get involved in other countries was not the way to do it 27:30.474 --> 27:36.334 And so she is one of the voices that is coming out against Donald Trump 27:36.334 --> 27:43.974 and this attempt to take control of a foreign country. She is obviously a minority 27:44.174 --> 27:48.474 As you were reminded, our viewers, she has also had a falling out with Donald Trump 27:48.474 --> 27:58.634 But she does represent a certain fringe of the MAGA movement that is ideologically very opposed to any form of intervention abroad 27:58.934 --> 28:03.354 whether it's in the Western Hemisphere, whether it's in the Middle East 28:03.354 --> 28:13.094 whether it's helping Israel, whether it's helping the Ukrainians. They simply believe that it is not the Americans' business to spend money helping others 28:13.094 --> 28:19.754 when they could be helping their own countrymen. That's basically the ideology, and that is what she's going after 28:19.894 --> 28:28.314 And there are a few other Republicans who are pointing to that. Some Republicans are also pointing to the fact that maybe, especially those in Congress 28:28.314 --> 28:33.414 are saying, well, maybe you should have come and asked us first, because it is, in the end 28:34.154 --> 28:40.614 Congress's role to sort of give the authority to the president to go to war with another country 28:40.694 --> 28:45.194 But I think what is going to be interesting domestically in the coming days and weeks 28:45.194 --> 28:53.234 is how this is going to play out with the MAGA world more broadly. Now that we've clearly seen 28:53.234 --> 28:58.434 that this is not just a one and done. We go in, we get Nicolas Maduro out, and then we're done 28:58.794 --> 29:03.534 If you are going to say, we are taking over Venezuela, we are going to run the country 29:03.914 --> 29:10.554 how is that going to play out with those Americans who wanted Donald Trump and who believed Donald Trump 29:10.554 --> 29:14.354 when he said, we're not going to get involved in forever wars 29:14.454 --> 29:19.674 we're not going to get involved abroad? We're also seeing this, while we're on air 29:19.774 --> 29:24.554 it's worth saying this, Ketavan, this is coming from AP, saying that the US won't govern Venezuela 29:24.554 --> 29:29.394 but will press charges through oil blockades. This is from Marco Rubio a short while ago 29:29.394 --> 29:34.234 after Trump's claims of running the country. So we see him already. Things are starting to unwind a little bit 29:34.234 --> 29:39.694 as we start to unpick the press conference. Hélène, interesting. Maybe not surprising that the rhetoric 29:39.694 --> 29:44.814 is different to the reality, or at least it's changing. Marco Rubio now saying that the US 29:44.814 --> 29:51.514 won't govern Venezuela. I think it was never to be the case 29:52.414 --> 29:59.974 I think this is not about restoring democracy. I'm not, you know, I'm convinced that Donald Trump and his administration 29:59.974 --> 30:09.800 are not concerned at all about this. They are just concerned about seizing the world's largest petrol resource 30:10.140 --> 30:18.620 I think it's far greater even than what Saudi Arabia has. And I think, you know, in his speech, Donald Trump has used the term petrol 20 times 30:19.160 --> 30:29.600 So I think that was his objective. I also believe that while the military operation was impeccable, if you like 30:30.000 --> 30:36.520 from the point of view of the result, I think there must have been a great level of collusion 30:36.520 --> 30:42.720 and preparation for it. But while, you know, we have no doubt to believe 30:42.720 --> 30:54.320 the talents of the intelligence American services, I do believe that somehow some agreement was passed 30:55.180 --> 31:09.040 Maybe that, you know, the military will, you know, rule the country or the vice president will remain in place. And I think what the biggest 31:09.040 --> 31:17.980 concern for the Trump administration is for the American oil companies to take hold of the 31:17.980 --> 31:27.120 resources and thus having the United States somehow weakening China, which I think gets 80 31:27.120 --> 31:37.480 of its own oil from Venezuela and also Russia, because we're going to see great movements as to the price of oil 31:37.480 --> 31:43.540 And if you remember, you know, the war in Ukraine is funded 31:43.540 --> 31:51.760 mainly by the oil and gas exports by Russia, which today is under sanctions but still happening 31:52.040 --> 32:01.020 So what we have there is something which is much bigger. And of course, Donald Trump, by kind of saying, look, I haven't changed the government 32:01.660 --> 32:05.600 It was just, you know, we captured the president of that country 32:05.900 --> 32:11.200 So therefore, we didn't have to go to Congress. We didn't declare war on Venezuela 32:11.440 --> 32:21.860 And that's why we today have, you know, the Venezuelan people being told, sorry, that they have to go about their own business, you know, as usual 32:21.860 --> 32:29.860 So I think, you know, that's why we see this change as well, because, you know, it's not about the United States ruling Venezuela 32:30.800 --> 32:41.020 And indeed, if we go back to Iraq and Afghanistan and Libya, I mean, what did the Western operations, military operations achieve in those countries 32:41.120 --> 32:48.240 if not just chaos and certainly not the restoration of democracy in none of these countries 32:48.240 --> 32:51.980 So I think, you know, if they were to do that with Venezuela 32:52.460 --> 32:56.760 it might end up with the civil war. And I think it would be a big mess for the Americans 32:57.180 --> 33:00.980 A big mess for the Americans. We are still getting information coming through, Elaine 33:02.000 --> 33:05.639 Not just from the Marco Rubio saying that we won't govern Venezuela 33:06.280 --> 33:13.220 President Trump has given an interview with Atlantic magazine saying this. Venezuelan Vice President Delce Rodriguez, if she doesn't do what's right, quote 33:14.020 --> 33:17.600 she will pay a bigger price than Maduro. We're going to hear in a moment 33:17.600 --> 33:22.580 I want to bring in Mikey Kay in London. He's a renowned military yst. He's a presenter of BBC's Security Brief programme as well 33:23.080 --> 33:28.840 the security brief. Before that, I wanted to hear again from Gabrielle. Gabrielle Hetland, author of Democracy on the Ground 33:29.040 --> 33:33.680 Local Politics in Latin America's Left Turn. Because I want to talk about Cuba as well, Gabrielle 33:33.680 --> 33:39.120 If you look at the oil reserves coming via Venezuela, the quote is, according to AP 33:39.240 --> 33:46.760 around 25% to 30% of Cuba's total oil, 30% to 40% are its own, but that's a lot of oil 33:46.760 --> 33:55.220 And it's affected already the fact that the shipments of oil taken by the Trump administration, the U.S. actions in December, has seen even more widespread blackouts 33:55.800 --> 34:05.000 We're talking about a vulnerable, vulnerable potential country here, aren't we? A vulnerable government, given that Trump is now saying we effectively have control of the oil 34:05.520 --> 34:12.159 How do you see this playing out? It's a very important aspect of what's happening right now 34:12.159 --> 34:17.800 Now, Cuba and Venezuela have had an economic relationship where Venezuela has been shipping 34:17.800 --> 34:23.040 significant amounts of oil for well over a decade to Cuba at very reduced rates 34:23.500 --> 34:29.980 Cuba has often sold that oil on the open market for hard currency that they use for all sorts of 34:29.980 --> 34:35.820 projects and state uses within Cuba. And in exchange, they have sent doctors 34:35.820 --> 34:41.220 they have sent a lot of military and security advisors to Venezuela. And it's 34:41.220 --> 34:46.679 hard to know all the specific details, of course, but it's hard to imagine that that relationship 34:46.679 --> 34:52.440 will continue in any fashion whatsoever at this point. It's hard to imagine that the Trump 34:52.440 --> 34:58.320 administration and Marco Rubio in particular would allow Venezuela to continue sending oil 34:58.320 --> 35:03.080 in any fashion, but particularly at deeply discounted rates to Cuba. So that means that 35:03.080 --> 35:09.040 Cuba could be looking at a major immediate reduction in oil, and there could be a total 35:09.040 --> 35:15.360 severing of the sort of military and security relationship between Cuba and Venezuela. It's 35:15.360 --> 35:20.180 important to note that this relationship has deteriorated in recent years. Venezuela has 35:20.180 --> 35:26.260 been sending less oil than it used to before, partly related to its own economic crisis within 35:26.260 --> 35:31.920 Venezuela. It's not clear if Cuba's military presence in Venezuela has been reduced compared 35:31.920 --> 35:38.180 to what it was some years ago. But nonetheless, the capture of Maduro, the change in government 35:38.180 --> 35:43.260 within Venezuela is almost sure to have a major, major and drastic impact 35:43.260 --> 35:49.840 on the Cuba-Venezuela relationship. And we'll have to wait and see to know exactly how that plays out 35:49.900 --> 35:53.920 But I think it's going to be very significant. It is very significant 35:54.020 --> 36:00.400 The other point in this triage of information coming through, it's very hard to actually just take a breath and actually work out the operation itself 36:00.680 --> 36:05.180 how utterly extraordinary it was, the speed it was, two hours, 20 minutes 36:05.180 --> 36:09.320 We want to hear Mikey Kay's perspective on this. We all want to hear this 36:09.440 --> 36:15.740 Mikey served in the British Enforcipes for 20 years, flew assault helicopters. Before we go to Mikey, I just want a quick word with Fraser 36:15.840 --> 36:21.680 because you're looking at the information coming in, Marco Rubio's comments saying that we don't want to govern Venezuela 36:21.779 --> 36:25.340 this is in the last few minutes itself. What's your take, Fraser 36:25.400 --> 36:38.379 as to how things are starting to play out in rhetoric I mean the White House is the chief of rhetoric and this White House is very good at you know 36:38.599 --> 36:44.899 changing headlines and keeping people talking and also diverting people across multiple different topics as well 36:44.979 --> 36:49.779 I think it's no surprise that the actual reality of what this is going to look like is very different 36:49.779 --> 36:54.239 to what the White House is saying, very different to what Donald Trump said in that press conference 36:54.239 --> 37:00.999 immediately after the seizing of Maduro. And in reality, it is probably going to fall to the US 37:00.999 --> 37:06.019 to try to influence the regime that is left behind. But of course, they are keeping up the threats 37:06.019 --> 37:11.399 of US boots on the ground, military troops there as leverage in the Caribbean as well 37:11.519 --> 37:16.739 But I think if we go back quickly to the Atlantic interview that Donald Trump gave this morning 37:16.739 --> 37:22.039 to my colleague, Michael Shearer, it's interesting as well that the other place he touches on 37:22.039 --> 37:30.739 is Greenland. Once again, Greenland is now back in the headlines. This as well, after the wife of Stephen Miller 37:30.879 --> 37:38.039 who is Donald Trump's deputy chief of staff for policy, she tweeted a picture yesterday of Greenland covered in an American flag 37:38.399 --> 37:46.219 She tweeted that, prompting responses from Denmark, which of course is Greenland's territory of Denmark 37:46.699 --> 37:52.259 and the Danish ambassador posted about that and saying that it was a sovereign territory 37:52.259 --> 37:59.139 but once again Donald Trump is not letting up on this and in this interview with the Atlantic 37:59.139 --> 38:05.859 he was asked whether the operation in Venezuela there should be any lessons learned for the people of Greenland 38:05.859 --> 38:12.099 and he said it was up to other people to come to those conclusions but Donald Trump said we do need Greenland, absolutely 38:12.099 --> 38:16.539 we need it for defence. He said that it was surrounded by Chinese and Russian ships 38:16.539 --> 38:23.339 so once again Donald Trump moving on and keeping people talking about different topics 38:23.339 --> 38:29.699 to try to take the spotlight away from something that he might not necessarily want to talk about right now as well 38:29.859 --> 38:37.219 So this White House continuing to keep people guessing and continuing to shift multiple topics and multiple stories 38:37.219 --> 38:42.179 at the same time to keep everybody on their toes. Very interesting 38:42.579 --> 38:47.899 Let's go to London because the shock and awe of this two-hour, 20-minute operation 38:48.039 --> 38:52.539 Let's get the view from Mikey Kaye, renowned military yst, presenter of the BBC's Security Brief programme 38:52.699 --> 38:58.079 served, as I mentioned, the British Armed Forces for 20 years before going into filmmaking and flew assault helicopters 38:58.079 --> 39:02.099 on numerous operational tours. He joins us tonight. Great to have you on the programme with us, Mikey 39:02.599 --> 39:07.659 You recorded a programme a month ago. You predicted this would happen. Tell us about why you could see it coming 39:07.659 --> 39:13.539 and how it actually played out. I mean, that's a very kind intro 39:13.539 --> 39:21.739 When you have the knowledge and expertise and experience of flying those type of night 39:21.739 --> 39:26.719 stalker operations, which I did for numerous years over Baghdad, working with UK Special 39:26.719 --> 39:36.539 Forces, you get a real understanding of attempted regime change in Iraq, attempted regime change 39:36.539 --> 39:45.379 in Afghanistan. and you kind of know whilst technology is involving, and we'll come on to the technology piece in a moment 39:45.379 --> 39:50.439 because the operation was incredibly sophisticated. I don't think we've ever seen anything quite like it 39:51.879 --> 39:56.739 You understand that there are some basic tenets of the way that warfare plays out 39:57.159 --> 40:04.739 And if you imagine that the mission going all the way back to six months, eight months 40:04.739 --> 40:09.999 If the mission was to capture Maduro in his home territory, then you've got to work backwards 40:09.999 --> 40:16.779 off that. What do I mean by that? So you've got to work all the way through to the very first thing that the US has to 40:16.779 --> 40:21.779 do, which is they have to start getting human intelligence, human, on the behavioral activity 40:21.779 --> 40:29.979 of Maduro. There are three types of intelligence. There's human intelligence, which is usually from an asset or an informant 40:30.579 --> 40:35.799 There's imagery intelligence, which can do what's called pattern of life. so understand behavioral patterns 40:35.939 --> 40:44.839 That usually comes from Reaper drones or some form of overwatch that can have long endurance and just sit up there without being detected 40:44.839 --> 40:49.359 and suck up all that imagery intelligence. And that's through electro-optic cameras 40:49.479 --> 40:55.279 It's through thermal cameras. And then you've got ELINT or SIGINT, signals intelligence 40:55.499 --> 41:00.179 And the signals intelligence piece is also critical when you're building up for one of these missions 41:00.179 --> 41:09.919 And that's basically listening into telephone conversations, triangulating whereabouts. And what the US have done is, according to open source reporting 41:10.039 --> 41:14.819 the CIA plant was in there during the summer of last year. It's building up that picture 41:14.819 --> 41:21.119 of behavioral patterns by Maduro. Because the last thing that you want to do is you want to launch 41:21.119 --> 41:26.879 you don't want to launch a huge mission like that and then not have the asset or the target 41:26.879 --> 41:32.999 in the place that you think that person's going to be. So it goes back a long way. It starts with 41:32.999 --> 41:39.419 the intelligence. The end state is putting up helicopter or aviation assets. In this case 41:39.419 --> 41:46.979 it was the MH-60 Black Hawks and the MH-47 Chinooks with overwatch of drone overhead 41:47.659 --> 41:57.539 And then the bit in the middle is what's called suppression of enemy air defense. So the suppression of enemy air defense bit is American jets. And as you rightly pointed out 41:57.539 --> 42:09.959 About a month ago, we saw a massive buildup of US capability inside the Caribbean from the USS Gerald Ford, which is the largest aircraft carrier, largest warship in the world, displaces 100,000 tons 42:11.079 --> 42:22.739 The ability to launch over 200 sorties from that aircraft carrier. You've then got a buildup of F-35Bs, which are the fifth generation jet inside Puerto Rico 42:23.059 --> 42:28.279 You've got Reapers and drones going into Puerto Rico. You've got MV Ospreys, which are troop carriers going into Puerto Rico 42:28.979 --> 42:34.979 And the really interesting bit is you've got the special forces, the U.S. special forces build up off the coast of Venezuela 42:35.159 --> 42:44.439 And that involves what's called the, let's say it's a ship that the U.S. have that is specially designed to be able to launch helicopter missions 42:45.119 --> 42:53.199 And then you've got these helicopters, the Blackhawks and the CH-47s, which are specifically geared to have a additional special forces capability 42:53.199 --> 42:58.099 so terrain following radar, refuelling probes, etc. So it's been a huge build-up in the making 42:58.099 --> 43:10.619 and we can go a little bit more into the advanced stuff on suppression of the enemy air defence if you want Let do it because you take us beyond the layman understanding here military operations Your insight is valuable given your experience as well Two things interest me in particular One you talk about the technology 43:10.699 --> 43:15.699 I believe F-35s. There was a technology that other countries just couldn't use 43:15.699 --> 43:22.059 in that two hours, 20 minutes, in being able to direct its assault on particular military installations 43:22.219 --> 43:28.099 communication infrastructure, and also your experience. This is your world. The heli assault itself, you know 43:28.099 --> 43:33.279 the special force operations in coming off the aircraft and getting to Maduro 43:35.219 --> 43:48.519 Yeah, so let's start with SEAD, Suppression of Enemy Air Defence. That basically is using military capability to be able to suppress any form of response from Venezuela 43:48.519 --> 43:53.519 And in this case, the big threat to the jets was the S-300 missiles 43:53.519 --> 44:00.599 ballistic counter-air defense, which Venezuela purchased from Russia. Now, the problem with those 44:00.599 --> 44:04.839 is that they are mobile, but the problem with those is they've got a huge radar, a very powerful 44:04.839 --> 44:10.639 radar on them. So as soon as those systems turn their radar on, that flashes up like a firework 44:10.639 --> 44:18.099 inside the back of a F-18 jet that has got a anti-radiation missile strapped to the side 44:18.099 --> 44:28.539 And an anti-radiation missile basically is a missile that will lock straight on to that radar signature from an S-300, and it will go in and it will take that S-300 out 44:28.659 --> 44:37.739 Now, the Venezuelans knew this. So the Venezuelans were then starting to move the S-300s because the topography is quite interesting in Venezuela 44:38.019 --> 44:43.719 It's quite hilly. And if it's quite hilly, it means that you can get a little bit more protection from any air threat 44:43.799 --> 44:50.939 So that's what started happening. Now, the interesting bit about the F-35 is we know the British use the F-35, the Norwegians 44:50.939 --> 44:56.739 have got it, the IDF have been using it in strikes against Doha and Iran 44:58.519 --> 45:02.899 Historically, or most people think the F-35 is used for a kinetic platform 45:03.059 --> 45:06.679 Kinetic means dropping a bomb, which it is, and it has been 45:06.739 --> 45:11.859 But in this particular case, it's also the most sophisticated fighter in the world in 45:11.859 --> 45:19.179 terms of the sensors that it has. So at 20 nautical miles off the coast, you've got a USF-35 acting as a sensor 45:19.339 --> 45:25.279 And what it's doing is it's tracking the movements of those S-300s in real time 45:25.839 --> 45:31.479 And then what it's doing is it's passing those real-time updates of GPS locations of the S-300s 45:31.479 --> 45:36.679 to the Tomahawk land attack missiles, which are coming out of either submarines or US warships 45:36.679 --> 45:43.179 based in the Caribbean. So basically, there's nowhere to go. And I can't think back to any operation 45:43.599 --> 45:50.999 And I've served three tours in Iraq. I've done two tours, Afghanistan. I've done Kosovo, evacuation operations out of West Africa 45:51.119 --> 46:02.259 I can't think of any other operation where there was this level of sophistication to be able to target air defenses that are actually trying to maneuver out the way of the threat 46:02.439 --> 46:07.559 So it was very complex. And it was also incredibly accurate and incredibly effective 46:08.119 --> 46:13.759 Before we go into the compound and the Heliosoft itself, I want to go back to Gabriel a second 46:13.919 --> 46:18.559 Stay with us, Mikey. Gabriel Hetland, who's got many commitments tonight, so thank you for your time 46:18.559 --> 46:23.619 But I do want to just get a word with you related to this, listening to the operation itself 46:23.699 --> 46:30.539 what Mikey was saying, Gabriel, which is, you know, you've studied and you know Latin American politics 46:30.899 --> 46:37.379 particularly Venezuelan politics, very well. When you look at the military infrastructure and you look at the fact that it's happened so quickly 46:37.559 --> 46:47.699 There's a lot of talk now about the aftermath and about the concern for the vulnerability of those political prisoners and whether the authoritarian government would take action 46:47.799 --> 46:57.319 What's your take on that, Gabrielle? It doesn't seem like democracy or human rights is a major consideration of the Trump administration 46:57.319 --> 47:09.559 None of their actions so far have suggested that they are, you know, allowing the continuation of the Maduro regime without Maduro 47:09.739 --> 47:20.219 So it's Madurismo without Maduro, which has, you know, critics of Maduro upset about that, including critics on the left, not just the right wing opposition within Venezuela 47:20.219 --> 47:29.819 And so, you know, some of the other moves that are happening right now also suggest that we're not looking at any sort of electoral process starting anytime soon 47:29.819 --> 47:42.679 I think all of the things that Delcy Rodriguez has done, particularly stepping up as an interim president, they have declared Maduro to be temporarily rather than permanently absent within Venezuela 47:42.679 --> 47:50.879 And that's a move that means it doesn't trigger the constitutional requirement to call for new elections within 30 days 47:51.119 --> 48:08.239 Instead, it allows them to rule indefinitely. So as long as that goes on, you could have the continuation of the same regime, which has a lot of critiques around human rights, around civil rights, around political freedoms as well within Venezuela 48:08.239 --> 48:14.519 And again, there's no indication that the Trump administration has any real interest in that 48:14.599 --> 48:23.679 It seems like Trump's own primary interest in all of this is to have the trophy of Maduro and then also have Venezuelan oil 48:24.239 --> 48:31.699 The question of democracy, the question of a transition doesn't seem to be on his radar, doesn't seem to be important 48:31.699 --> 48:41.599 I don't remember, you know, if the word democracy was mentioned at all in Trump's press conference yesterday, but it certainly wasn't the major theme of the press conference 48:41.879 --> 48:46.639 And I think that's quite notable. Really good to have you on with us tonight, Gabrielle 48:46.639 --> 48:55.499 Thank you for your time, Gabrielle Hetland, sociologist specializing in Latin American politics and author, too, of Democracy on the Ground, Local Politics in Latin America's Left Turn 48:55.499 --> 49:02.599 Still with us, Fraser Jackson, our US correspondent in Washington, D.C. Ketavan Gogistani, our international affairs editor as well with us 49:02.659 --> 49:10.019 plus French socialist senator Hélène Conway-Mouret and Mikey Kay as well, the presenter of the BBC Security Brief programme 49:10.179 --> 49:14.459 Hélène, before we leave you as well, I know you've got commitments tonight 49:14.539 --> 49:19.439 let me ask you about President Macron's statement, saying in the past, well, since overnight 49:19.599 --> 49:25.439 saying that the 2024 presidential candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, should lead a peaceful transition 49:25.879 --> 49:30.319 that the people got rid of a dictatorship. no question on legal issues for the US 49:30.399 --> 49:53.018 Has he gone far enough? Well it a very strange and disappointing statement by the French president One expects better as regards the defense of international law and violation of the UN Charter which has taken place with the American operation 49:53.318 --> 49:59.678 So does it go far enough? Well, I think it doesn't go anywhere 49:59.858 --> 50:09.178 That's the problem. and which again goes back to what I said previously about, unfortunately, Europe displaying its weaknesses 50:09.178 --> 50:15.698 and also being so much centered on the resolution of the war in Ukraine 50:15.698 --> 50:23.658 which obviously is very much linked with the American commitment to continue supporting Ukraine 50:23.658 --> 50:32.758 that I think the Europeans are totally entangled in that and out of fear, out of weakness, whatever, you know 50:32.838 --> 50:41.038 we're not playing the role we should be playing in this. I mean, what has taken place there in Venezuela may take place in Cuba 50:41.278 --> 50:45.558 Of course, it's going to please a lot of Republicans, you know 50:45.798 --> 51:00.978 I mean, if indeed Cuba and Venezuela fall, I mean, these have been thorns really for a long time in American history to have these countries, you know, standing up to the American domination 51:01.298 --> 51:14.858 So, of course, that will be pleasing to some. But I think overall, what has taken place is not good news for anybody, for international security, international law, institutions and so on 51:15.998 --> 51:21.978 Hélène, lovely to talk to you tonight. Thank you for your time. Hélène Conway-Moré, thank you, French Socialist Senator 51:22.138 --> 51:25.978 Let's go back to Mikey. Very interesting to listen to your insight 51:26.558 --> 51:31.118 A question that Fraser and Ketavan, we've been talking amongst ourselves politically 51:31.118 --> 51:37.218 about whether there was possible CIA involvement. Could this take place without somebody key to having turned on Maduro 51:37.218 --> 51:41.138 And when it comes to that operation itself, the heli-assault we were talking about 51:41.138 --> 51:46.458 going into that fortress-like building, which we know from war games that the Pentagon and Special Forces 51:46.458 --> 51:53.978 had a role-played this before, Mikey, is your assessment that this could have taken place without somebody on the ground who turned 51:56.198 --> 52:05.618 No, the level of information that you need from an informant perspective on the behavioural habits of Maduro just wouldn't have been there 52:06.298 --> 52:14.038 So the CIA plant, I think the open reporting on that, I think it's highly likely that that did occur 52:14.038 --> 52:21.078 I think the question is not whether there was someone on the inside that was being an informant 52:21.258 --> 52:36.138 It's to what extent that number of people exactly exists. So it was a CIA plant, but also who else was that plant, that asset, talking to to gather that information over six to eight months 52:36.478 --> 52:41.838 I think that's the interesting question as to what extent people were involved in this when we're talking about an inside job 52:41.838 --> 53:06.198 When you look at the ability of the US forces now and you look at the scale of that operation, Mikey, is the technology and their ability to surpass anything? If it happened anywhere, you know, what chance the question is, what chances most country got? The might of the US, if they want to pick somebody out, is your summary that they could just do it? Wherever they are 53:06.198 --> 53:19.218 I mean, there are so many factors that go into that. I mean, having a CVN or an aircraft carrier, CSG carrier support group, that allows power projection, allows force projection 53:19.938 --> 53:29.798 So it just all depends on the level of capability of whomever the US might decide to go after next 53:29.938 --> 53:33.778 I mean, there are some bits that change with technology and there are some bits that don't 53:33.778 --> 53:50.258 Let me give you some examples. So in order to launch that special forces mission on a two hour 20 journey, there are four four major risks as an aviation commander, which I used to be on a pilot in doing a type of operation like that 53:51.378 --> 53:55.558 The obvious one that people think about is what is the threat on the ground 53:56.018 --> 54:02.178 Now, I spoke earlier on about the suppression of any air defense, Tomahawk land attack missiles, taking out S 300 54:02.178 --> 54:11.798 The S-300 isn't a threat to a low-level flying helicopter. It's what's called MANPADS, Man Portable Air Defense, a really mobile tube that fits on 54:11.798 --> 54:18.098 the shoulder of a soldier and can be launched using an infrared or heat-seeking head, which 54:18.098 --> 54:22.378 then targets the engines or the heat source of whatever the target is 54:22.458 --> 54:31.118 So it would be engines in the case of helicopters. Now, the Venezuelans bought SA-24 IGLA, that's the NATO code name, for these missiles 54:31.118 --> 54:43.618 And thankfully, when I was operating in Baghdad, there was no known evidence or intelligence that al-Qaeda had these kind of manpads, which provides you with great relief 54:44.458 --> 54:58.078 These SA-24 IGLA's also will have a countermeasures capability. So what that means is, is that when we used to fly, the American soft forces, special operations forces will have the same self-defense equipment on the helicopters 54:58.078 --> 55:04.358 But the primary one that helps invade a MANPAD launch missile is flares 55:04.978 --> 55:13.258 And basically, flares will come out of the helicopter pointing forward. And hopefully, the idea of the flare is to go into the scope of the IR seeker head 55:13.258 --> 55:20.738 And the IR seeker head then decides to take the flare and not stay on the engine, i.e. decoying the missile away 55:20.898 --> 55:29.778 So that's an important one. And there are, and I have seen unverified footage of manpads being launched at these helicopters 55:29.878 --> 55:36.218 So that's threat number one. If you want to jump in, please do. No, only because we don't want to crash the programme 55:36.438 --> 55:43.378 But you know what? It is fascinating to get an insight. It's not every day we can go into your world, to that world, to understand the operation 55:43.558 --> 55:47.778 Mikey, we will speak again, no doubt, in the coming days. Really appreciate your time 55:48.338 --> 55:52.558 Renowned military yst Mikey Kay, presenter of the BBC Security Brief programme 55:52.558 --> 55:57.058 We'll speak soon. Thank you for your time. Thank you also. Fraser Jackson, our US correspondent in DC 55:57.278 --> 56:01.298 Ketavan Gurdjieff, thank you too. Our International Affairs editor will be back with you both very shortly 56:01.738 --> 56:05.278 Stay with us here on France 24. We'll be back in just a moment