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Washington's already strained relations with Havana
have been rapidly deteriorating in recent weeks

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U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has repeatedly
called Cuba a threat to national security

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amid fears the island nation has a fleet of
drones that could be used to attack Florida

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And the Trump administration has warned that
a peaceful agreement with Cuba is unlikely

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All of this comes as the island deals
with an oil embargo imposed by the U.S

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To discuss this further, we can bring in Andres Prochera, a historian
of Latin America and the Caribbean, specializing on the history of Cuba

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Andres, welcome to the program.
It's great to have you with us

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Now, an oil blockade, a growing U.S. military presence,
federal charges and repeated threats of intervention

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We've heard this before. This looks like
the playbook for the Venezuela operation

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Do you think that scenario would work in Cuba? Well, first, thanks for
having me on. I think that that certainly seems to be what Trump is

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trying to do, but I don't think that Cuba works in
the same way. Just to cite a few obvious examples

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um so in in venezuela it worked so far because
the vice president delcio rodriguez is a was

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willing to cooperate with the trump administration
and she was the next in line legally to be in

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power in cuba um if they take out raul castro
okay well he's maybe like a powerful figure but

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he has no official position um cube in cuba
the power does not necessarily obey any sort of

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institutional framework, right? And Diaz-Canel
is already very unpopular and an easy scapegoat

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So removing him might actually make it easier
for the government. So I'm not really sure

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how the Venezuela playbook would work even on
paper, much less in practice for an elite that

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definitely would reasonably fear that a
post-overthrow situation or any sort of

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understanding with the U.S. would leave them
vulnerable to later having Florida come in and

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push for really harsh criminal charges
and investigations and jail and the rest

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Andres as you mentioned there if the Trump administration does move forward with a
Venezuelan scenario there is no indication of who would step into that leadership void

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So what does a U.S. peaceful takeover
of the island really look like

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Do we have any indications? Not especially. I'm not really sure how it would work because historically, if we look at peaceful transitions, like look at Chile after Pinochet, Spain after Franco, normally there is
an under, the military is willing to basically take a step back and not fight it to the end because they understand that they will be safe, that there will be some sort of amnesty, which will also be respected

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and no one has a definitive advantage and
therefore everyone's willing to compromise

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on what they want. It's hard to
see Trump, especially Marco Rubio

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who's really in the driver's seat for Cuba
policy, accepting that it would not be acceptable

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to do a Venezuela situation for Cuba
for the Florida voting base of the GOP

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and Florida is an important state for them
electorally, nationally. And at the same time

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I wouldn't trust any sort of promises. If I were a
Cuban general, I wouldn't trust any promises that

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the U.S. is going to respect an amnesty or an
agreement not to touch them in a transition

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situation. Now, Andres, let's talk a minute
about these drones and the indictment of Raul

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Castro. Cuba says that the U.S. is using both of
those things to make a fraudulent case to justify

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military intervention. So do you think Cuban
officials would actually authorize drone attacks

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against the U.S.? Never proactively. That would
be suicide in many ways. It would be giving the

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U.S. the excuse for a military intervention.
And Cuba knows that it stands no chance in a

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conventional war. The plan has always been a
guerrilla war of some kind. However, if the US

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forces Cuba to defend itself in a military
context, Cuba doesn't have the capability to do

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like the Hormuz Strait strategy that Iran is
doing, where it shuts down the Yucatan and Florida

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Straits But maybe it can threaten to kind of occasionally attack some ships or something and use that to
impose some kind of cost on the U increase costs of transporting goods and increase insurance requirements

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So it would be a very poor cousin to Hormuz. But if I were Cuba,
I would also be like investing in drones just as a backup plan

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Obviously, it's not going to be definitive,
but the idea is hold on and impose pain

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And that seems to have worked for Iran. Now,
Andres, as we've established, you're a historian

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There's been decades of mistrust between Cuba and the U.S. Do you
believe the two sides can come to some form of a negotiated solution

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I think that such a solution was possible a decade ago
under Obama because it was kind of a new status quo

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There was a normalization strategy at play. And there wasn't this
kind of gun to the head, like maximum pressure strategy from the U.S

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with Trump. He's basically the rhetorical device,
worst case scenario that the Cubans have been

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warning about what the U.S. is for decades, but
made flesh, incarnated, right? And so it's really

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hard to see them compromising with Trump for
ideological reasons. It would be a betrayal for

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their whole life, their whole life mission, their
whole identity. It would be an act of betrayal to

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their country as they see it. It would be
something that wouldn't even work out practically

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because this would just be giving the hardest
heart, right, you know, the ability to ride

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roughshod over Cubans and dictate everything
in Cuba. So I'm not sure with this approach

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how that's possible. There might be a collapse,
but a collapse is very different from a negotiated

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transition. Well, we know that both sides have
been having these indirect talks. The CIA director

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was just there on a visit. And the U.S. also
wants to see Cuba release political prisoners and

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institute some kinds of economic reforms.
So how willing is Cuba to continue talks

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in possibility of an exchange for some sanctions being lifted? Cuba been consistently open to talks throughout this process But they also
been very consistent that there are red lines that they will not cross And one of them is restructuring the political system So I could

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see them agreeing to releasing some political
prisoners like Luis Manuel Otero Alcantara

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but in exchange for some kind of trade with
the US. But given that the core tension is

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regime change of some kind or a transition of some
kind, that seems like a more insoluble problem

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because they know that that would basically be
political suicide, especially with the discontent

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on the island, the despair and anger. If they
enact liberalizing reforms in the political sphere

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I don't think they would last in power very long.
So they really, I don't see how they would agree

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to that in practice. And Andres, one final
question. As you mentioned there, there is

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despair on the island because all of this is
happening as the U.S. imposes that oil embargo

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only one Russian tanker had been able to
get through. So conditions on the island are

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you know, worsening with all of
this. How are ordinary Cubans coping

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um cuba is used to suffering severe shortages
of all kinds and make jokes about it and

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figure out solutions um but cubans are living
a level of despair i've never seen a level of

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hopelessness um the even the capital which had
been insulated from the mass blackouts is no

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longer insulated anymore you're talking about 20
to 22 hour a day blackouts in the capital the

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economy is paralyzed medicine is near impossible
to come by tourism is effectively dead and so that

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needs no hard currencies and so that it's just
it's a total crisis uh the health care system is

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barely holding on education is collapsing
um agriculture is long collapsed like it's

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anyone who can leave has and many who are left
are trying to one in five roughly have left

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in the last six years. So about 20% of the
population has left in the last six years

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which is incredible for a country not in
a state of war. And it's hard to see how

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that will change anytime soon. Andres, thank you
so much for taking the time to speak with us today

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That's Andres Portiera, a historian
of Latin America and the Caribbean