Washington's already strained relations with Havana have been rapidly deteriorating in recent weeks
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has repeatedly called Cuba a threat to national security
amid fears the island nation has a fleet of drones that could be used to attack Florida
And the Trump administration has warned that a peaceful agreement with Cuba is unlikely
All of this comes as the island deals with an oil embargo imposed by the U.S
To discuss this further, we can bring in Andres Prochera, a historian of Latin America and the Caribbean, specializing on the history of Cuba
Andres, welcome to the program. It's great to have you with us
Now, an oil blockade, a growing U.S. military presence, federal charges and repeated threats of intervention
We've heard this before. This looks like the playbook for the Venezuela operation
Do you think that scenario would work in Cuba? Well, first, thanks for having me on. I think that that certainly seems to be what Trump is
trying to do, but I don't think that Cuba works in the same way. Just to cite a few obvious examples
um so in in venezuela it worked so far because the vice president delcio rodriguez is a was
willing to cooperate with the trump administration and she was the next in line legally to be in
power in cuba um if they take out raul castro okay well he's maybe like a powerful figure but
he has no official position um cube in cuba the power does not necessarily obey any sort of
institutional framework, right? And Diaz-Canel is already very unpopular and an easy scapegoat
So removing him might actually make it easier for the government. So I'm not really sure
how the Venezuela playbook would work even on paper, much less in practice for an elite that
definitely would reasonably fear that a post-overthrow situation or any sort of
understanding with the U.S. would leave them vulnerable to later having Florida come in and
push for really harsh criminal charges and investigations and jail and the rest
Andres as you mentioned there if the Trump administration does move forward with a Venezuelan scenario there is no indication of who would step into that leadership void
So what does a U.S. peaceful takeover of the island really look like
Do we have any indications? Not especially. I'm not really sure how it would work because historically, if we look at peaceful transitions, like look at Chile after Pinochet, Spain after Franco, normally there is an under, the military is willing to basically take a step back and not fight it to the end because they understand that they will be safe, that there will be some sort of amnesty, which will also be respected
and no one has a definitive advantage and therefore everyone's willing to compromise
on what they want. It's hard to see Trump, especially Marco Rubio
who's really in the driver's seat for Cuba policy, accepting that it would not be acceptable
to do a Venezuela situation for Cuba for the Florida voting base of the GOP
and Florida is an important state for them electorally, nationally. And at the same time
I wouldn't trust any sort of promises. If I were a Cuban general, I wouldn't trust any promises that
the U.S. is going to respect an amnesty or an agreement not to touch them in a transition
situation. Now, Andres, let's talk a minute about these drones and the indictment of Raul
Castro. Cuba says that the U.S. is using both of those things to make a fraudulent case to justify
military intervention. So do you think Cuban officials would actually authorize drone attacks
against the U.S.? Never proactively. That would be suicide in many ways. It would be giving the
U.S. the excuse for a military intervention. And Cuba knows that it stands no chance in a
conventional war. The plan has always been a guerrilla war of some kind. However, if the US
forces Cuba to defend itself in a military context, Cuba doesn't have the capability to do
like the Hormuz Strait strategy that Iran is doing, where it shuts down the Yucatan and Florida
Straits But maybe it can threaten to kind of occasionally attack some ships or something and use that to impose some kind of cost on the U increase costs of transporting goods and increase insurance requirements
So it would be a very poor cousin to Hormuz. But if I were Cuba, I would also be like investing in drones just as a backup plan
Obviously, it's not going to be definitive, but the idea is hold on and impose pain
And that seems to have worked for Iran. Now, Andres, as we've established, you're a historian
There's been decades of mistrust between Cuba and the U.S. Do you believe the two sides can come to some form of a negotiated solution
I think that such a solution was possible a decade ago under Obama because it was kind of a new status quo
There was a normalization strategy at play. And there wasn't this kind of gun to the head, like maximum pressure strategy from the U.S
with Trump. He's basically the rhetorical device, worst case scenario that the Cubans have been
warning about what the U.S. is for decades, but made flesh, incarnated, right? And so it's really
hard to see them compromising with Trump for ideological reasons. It would be a betrayal for
their whole life, their whole life mission, their whole identity. It would be an act of betrayal to
their country as they see it. It would be something that wouldn't even work out practically
because this would just be giving the hardest heart, right, you know, the ability to ride
roughshod over Cubans and dictate everything in Cuba. So I'm not sure with this approach
how that's possible. There might be a collapse, but a collapse is very different from a negotiated
transition. Well, we know that both sides have been having these indirect talks. The CIA director
was just there on a visit. And the U.S. also wants to see Cuba release political prisoners and
institute some kinds of economic reforms. So how willing is Cuba to continue talks
in possibility of an exchange for some sanctions being lifted? Cuba been consistently open to talks throughout this process But they also been very consistent that there are red lines that they will not cross And one of them is restructuring the political system So I could
see them agreeing to releasing some political prisoners like Luis Manuel Otero Alcantara
but in exchange for some kind of trade with the US. But given that the core tension is
regime change of some kind or a transition of some kind, that seems like a more insoluble problem
because they know that that would basically be political suicide, especially with the discontent
on the island, the despair and anger. If they enact liberalizing reforms in the political sphere
I don't think they would last in power very long. So they really, I don't see how they would agree
to that in practice. And Andres, one final question. As you mentioned there, there is
despair on the island because all of this is happening as the U.S. imposes that oil embargo
only one Russian tanker had been able to get through. So conditions on the island are
you know, worsening with all of this. How are ordinary Cubans coping
um cuba is used to suffering severe shortages of all kinds and make jokes about it and
figure out solutions um but cubans are living a level of despair i've never seen a level of
hopelessness um the even the capital which had been insulated from the mass blackouts is no
longer insulated anymore you're talking about 20 to 22 hour a day blackouts in the capital the
economy is paralyzed medicine is near impossible to come by tourism is effectively dead and so that
needs no hard currencies and so that it's just it's a total crisis uh the health care system is
barely holding on education is collapsing um agriculture is long collapsed like it's
anyone who can leave has and many who are left are trying to one in five roughly have left
in the last six years. So about 20% of the population has left in the last six years
which is incredible for a country not in a state of war. And it's hard to see how
that will change anytime soon. Andres, thank you so much for taking the time to speak with us today
That's Andres Portiera, a historian of Latin America and the Caribbean