The largest ever war games by China around Taiwan enter their second day with 10 hours of live firing exercises and a rehearsal of a blockade off the island
The drills are said to be closer to the island than in previous sessions and look to be, among other things, practicing striking land-based targets such as the US-made rocket system
These latest drills come less than two weeks after the United States sold over $11 billion worth of weapons to Taiwan
To get more insight, we can speak now to Senior Associate at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, Charles Parton
Thanks so much for your time. Can I start simply by asking you, how do you see these drills
Are they something that's become somewhat routine or are they reason to worry? I think routine is probably a two-week word, but they have been going on now in terms of big drills twice a year since 2022
The big one was when Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022. But it's twice a year. They're building up in size and intent
They generally last two days. And the aim is to convince Taiwan and the world that unification or reunification, as they like to say on the mainland, is irresistible and inevitable
So I think we'll see more of these. And this time we're being told that they've gotten closer to Taiwan than before
and that they gave less warning, less that they were going to take part, they're going to carry out these exercises
I mean, you say there that China wants to send the message that reunification is inevitable
I mean, could this go a step further from annual exercises to something more worrying
I mean I think if you referring to whether there going to be an invasion in the near future the answer is certainly no Xi Jinping has told the PLA the People Liberation Army to be ready and capable of invasion of Taiwan by 2027 which is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the PLA
But being capable does not mean that you're actually going to launch an invasion
I mean, there's a certain, there's obviously a very strong military logic behind all this, but also a certain amount of, shall we say, propaganda and pressurising
I mean, I'm no military expert, but it must take a considerable time to put one of these exercises together
And yet they seem to be timed within a week or two weeks of some event of which the Chinese disapprove
In this case, as you say, the very, very large sale of weapons to Taiwan by the United States
In the past, for instance, it was shortly after Nancy Pelosi's visit
So they fire the off gun at a time when they know that there's going to be something that they object to
And they use it as to reinforce the propaganda as well as to exercise their military
Of course, China doesn't want any international relations, really, between Taiwan and other countries
So this selling of U.S. weapons to Taiwan, the biggest apparently in its history, how significant is that
Does it signal any change on the U.S. position? Will it have any further impact
The U.S. has always sold weapons to Taiwan. I mean, during the Biden administration, I think weapon sales totaled something just over $8 billion
In Trump first term it was over 18 billion This is one big deal 11 billion And if there are others in the next year or two which I sure there will be then clearly there an increase in the amount of weapons
But let's also not forget that Taiwan, like many countries, under the threat of action from China, and it's China that is posing the threat here
Taiwan has undertaken, not least under American pressure, to increase its defence spending to 3% in 2026 and by 2030 to 5%
Well, if you're increasing your defence spending, you've got to buy the weapons from somewhere. And the likelihood is that they will continue to buy large amounts of American system
Now, last month, the Japanese Prime Minister said that any hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan
would trigger a military response from Tokyo. Can you put that into context for us
Any idea why that was said now and where Japan is currently on all of this
Well, I think that's always been the Japanese position. I mean, if you look at the map
the southern islands of Japan are very close to Taiwan and any war in the Straits would have a very direct effect on Japan
that the Japanese prime minister said it out aloud was a change
I don't think she was changing the position, but she did say it out aloud, which others haven't said before
And the Chinese have jumped on that as partly in order to discourage other people from getting too close to other countries
getting too close to Taiwan. They must also I mean in the back of the Chinese minds in the very unlikely event of Japan going into a state of military war or defence as a result of a Chinese invasion
of Taiwan. Let's not forget that Japan has an alliance with the United States so that if Japan
goes to war with China, again, I stress very unlikely, that would drag the Americans in. So
that's something that the Chinese must have in the back of their minds. And very lastly, Charles
Parton, before we leave you, perhaps just remind us all how we got here as well with Taiwan
It helps us understand. I mean, this dates back to the 1940s when the nationalists, I guess, left the mainland China and ran to this island, right
That's correct. The nationalists lost in the civil war. They fled with the remnants of their army and their air force to Taiwan
And at that time, the Chinese had other things on their plates rather than a very difficult invasion of an island
And to be frank, the Chinese Communist Party wasn't particularly concerned about Taiwan
At one stage, Mao Zedong said, well, basically, you can keep it
But then the Korean War, and not with Americans that excited about it
but then the Korean War happened and positions hardened. And since then, the Chinese propaganda has been putting it about
that it's always been a part of China and always been a rule from Beijing
That is not so, but that is where the propaganda goes. And to them now it is what they call one of their red lines, one of their core interests
And if anyone, in their view, messes with Taiwan, has inappropriate relations with Taiwan, they come down very heavily on them
And that's part of what they're signaling as ever at the moment. It's not just Japan and America, but please, no other countries have anything to do with Taiwan
That's their aim